The recent hotspots in the crypto market are indeed more intense than expected. On one side, the global financial concerns triggered by the $38.5 trillion US debt scale; on the other side, the rising buzz that 'Bitcoin is becoming the US strategic reserve.' But behind these surface-level excitements, the logic of market operation is far more complex than most people think.

Starting from the most basic question: Why has Bitcoin recently been frequently associated with US Treasury bonds? The fundamental reason is quite clear—the global confidence in the US dollar's credit is declining, and institutions and funds are searching for alternative assets. At the same time, after multiple rounds of market reshuffling, the crypto asset bubble has indeed been squeezed out quite a bit, beginning to show some 'value foundation' characteristics.

The key is that this information gap has been exploited by large capital from the very beginning. On-chain data shows that in the past week, several large addresses have shown signs of reducing their holdings, while public sentiment has actually been rising. Some are shouting about opportunities, while quietly cashing out profits—this routine has been repeated too many times in the crypto market.

Furthermore, the fundamental judgment of the market: it’s unlikely that Bitcoin will be officially included in the US national reserves. The reason is simple—reserve assets require stability and controllability, and Bitcoin’s volatility inherently disqualifies it from meeting these requirements. But from another perspective, viewing Bitcoin as a 'global capital safe haven pool' makes the logic entirely valid. When economic uncertainty rises, funds need to find safe outlets, and Bitcoin indeed has its unique value in this role.

For ordinary investors, distinguishing between 'reserve assets' and 'safe haven assets' is very important. The former demands absolute stability, while the latter pursues relative safety. Understanding this difference makes it less likely to be misled by the one-sided public sentiment in the market.