The first week of the new year, the global financial markets have entered a true "exam week." Economic data from China and the US are coming one after another; will the expectations of rate cuts be ignited or will they be doused with a cold shower? The answer will become clear this week.

Let's look at the rhythm first. Throughout the week, there will be releases of China and US PMI, ADP employment data to warm up, but the main event is on Friday — US non-farm payrolls and China's CPI and PPI will be released simultaneously. How much influence will these data have on the January rate meeting? The market is already holding its breath. Additionally, attention should be paid to developments in South Korea, where the president is leading visits to China with top companies like Samsung; what new developments might emerge in trade and economic relations is anyone's guess.

Interestingly, institutional funds are currently in a state of tension. On one hand, BlackRock has directly invested nearly $300 million in Bitcoin, signaling a very clear move of real money entering the market. On the other hand, institutions holding large amounts of Bitcoin are reportedly under pressure. In plain terms, market sentiment is divided — some see this as the true beginning of an institutionalized bull market, while others believe there will still be shakeouts and volatility.

Last year, the US dollar fell nearly 10%. Will this downward trend continue into 2026, or will there be a sharp turnaround? The answer may be hidden in this week's data. How many are betting that this will trigger a market rally, and how many are just watching and waiting for opportunities? That’s the question.