Monday Gold Market Highlights

From the weekly chart perspective, gold recently formed a large bearish candle, indicating the continuation of a downward trend. It is crucial to pay attention to the strength of the support break. Previously, there were multiple rebounds near 4303, and although it briefly dipped to 4274, it was quickly pulled back, showing that the support at this level is relatively strong.

On the daily chart, after a large bearish candle, the market is currently in a sideways consolidation phase. The problem is that as long as the daily candle does not close bullish, the upward space remains limited, which is the current dilemma. Future observations should focus on whether the support can be effectively broken; only then can a new downward cycle begin.

Macroeconomic Sentiment and Technical Interplay

On the news front, risk aversion sentiment tends to push gold higher, but if the US dollar remains strong, it will weaken gold prices. Caution is advised against large fluctuations and reversals.

Technically, the market shows weakness. The midline on the 4-hour chart has been broken, and the 4305-4300 zone has not stabilized in the short term. Watch out for the resistance zone at 4379-4385, which may lead to further declines, with 4365-4368 serving as short-term resistance points.

Trading Strategy

Both bulls and bears have motivation to participate at this stage. It is recommended to avoid the initial volatile moves and wait for a potentially more moderate second phase, which can help keep risks manageable. In such a choppy market, maintaining the right mindset is crucial—avoid chasing highs or selling lows, control your position size, and cut losses when necessary.

From a wave structure perspective, the overall outlook remains bullish. Once the bottom structure completes and reverses upward, the key trigger point is whether the daily candle can close bullish—if it does, the correction may be over, and an upward trend could begin.

Current reference strategies:
- Short in batches at 4382-4395 with a stop-loss at 4405, targeting below 4200;
- Long in batches at 4305-4315 with targets at 4390-4420.