Oil Dollar Cracks Widen: Revaluation of Crypto Assets Amid Venezuela's Turmoil

🔥🔥Brothers, breaking news! A silent revolution is underway on the global energy chessboard. On January 1, 2026, subtle shifts in Venezuela's situation, combined with the liquidity upheaval caused by the Fed's December FOMC decision to remove the SRP cap, are accelerating the final breach of the oil dollar's defenses. This is not ordinary political news but a "financial nuclear explosion" that will influence global wealth distribution over the next decade.

Venezuela's "Double-Edged Sword" Effect: Falling Oil Prices ≠ Stronger Dollar

According to the latest market analysis, the US is promoting the return of oil companies to Venezuela, which will significantly increase global crude oil supply in the medium to long term. Industry experts forecast that Venezuela's daily oil production could increase by 500,000 barrels within two years, with exports potentially rising to 3 million barrels per day. However, this resonates with the global oil market oversupply pattern in 2026—Brent crude is expected to fall to $50-70 per barrel, dropping another $10 from 2025.

Strangely, the traditional logic of "oil prices fall = dollar strengthens" is failing. Wall Street geopolitical expert Marko Papic points out that Trump's strategy toward Venezuela is actually a "maximum pressure negotiation tactic," aiming to find alternative energy chips after Saudi Arabia ceases to cooperate with low oil prices. Deeper still, the real pressure in the energy market in 2026 will force the US to abandon fiscal stimulus and instead "completely squeeze the Fed" to implement politically driven monetary easing.

This means: Sticky energy inflation may be forcibly addressed through currency devaluation rather than rate hikes. Delphi Digital's latest data shows gold has surged 120% since early 2024, with central banks worldwide purchasing over 600 tons of gold in 2025, expected to reach 840 tons in 2026. When precious metals lead Bitcoin by three months in pricing a loosening cycle, currency devaluation rather than market collapse is the market's true expectation signal.

De-dollarization "Trisolation Movement": Not a Choice, but Survival

The cracks in the oil dollar system are tearing apart in three dimensions simultaneously:

First, sanctions backfire. Countries excluded from SWIFT have seen energy trade settled via cryptocurrencies grow over 400% in the past year. This is not conspiracy theory but a survival necessity. When traditional financial infrastructure becomes a weapon, blockchain's "neutrality" upgrades from concept to infrastructure.

Second, diversification of reserve assets. In 2025, net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $66.3 billion, with Grayscale's crypto assets soaring from $54.77 billion to $102.09 billion. Sovereign wealth funds increased their allocation to digital assets from 0.5% to 3.2%, with 80% adopting a "gold + Bitcoin" dual-anchor model—gold for risk control (30-40% position), Bitcoin for growth capture.

Third, the alienation of the Fed's toolkit. After the December FOMC removed the $500 billion daily SRP limit, banks can now borrow from the Fed with unlimited collateral of government bonds. This seemingly enhances liquidity but actually admits that traditional interest rate controls (reserve rate + ON RRP) have failed. When monetary policy loses independence, fiat currency credit depreciation accelerates.

Crypto Asset "New Three-Front Narrative": From Speculation to Necessity

In this upheaval, different crypto assets are differentiating into clear strategic positions:

ZEC: Privacy as Sovereignty, Regulatory Breakthrough

Leading zero-knowledge proof project Zcash (ZEC) is experiencing a "rebirth." On January 3, 2026, ZEC price stabilized at $535, up 56.29% in 30 days, and surged 261.01% over 90 days. More critically, fundamental changes include:

• Privacy DeFi Integration: Rhea Finance launched ZEC lending services, with daily trading volume of $883 million, and 4.1 million ZEC (25% of total supply) entering privacy mode, sharply reducing circulating supply.

• Regulatory Breakthrough: The December CLARITY Act explicitly excludes ZEC from privacy coin bans, and the SEC is reviewing spot ZEC ETF applications. Grayscale's $137 million trust indicates institutional demand brewing.

• Supply Tightening: Major holders continue accumulating, with 73% of ZEC held for over a year. After the 2028 halving, annual issuance will drop to 780,000 coins.

ZEC's ultimate value lies not in speculation but in becoming a "Swiss Bank 2.0" for sovereign entities to conduct confidential settlements. When energy trade needs to bypass SWIFT but still meet some compliance requirements, ZEC's optional privacy is more strategically valuable than Monero's (XMR) full anonymity.

XRP: Infrastructure for Cross-Border Payments

Ripple benefits from the "fusion of traditional finance and crypto." The 1 billion XRP unlocked on January 1, 2026 (worth about $1.9 billion) was expected to create selling pressure, but Ripple typically re-locks 60-80% into escrow accounts. Actual circulating supply increased by less than 300-400 million, fully offset by 29 consecutive days of net fund inflows into the US spot XRP ETF.

Currently, XRP trades at $2.03, forming a strong consolidation zone between $2.0 and $2.5. If RippleNet expands and ODL (On-Demand Liquidity) adoption increases, coupled with regulatory clarity, XRP is shifting from a "security suspect" to a "cross-border settlement layer," a deeper narrative upgrade than just "price appreciation."

BTC/ETH: Twin Stars of Digital Gold and Digital Oil

Bitcoin's "digital oil" narrative is no longer just a slogan. In 2025, net inflows into spot ETFs reached $66.3 billion, proving sovereign funds are strategically allocating BTC as a "hedge against currency devaluation + emerging market reserve asset." When the oil dollar system cracks, Bitcoin's "non-sovereign" nature and "proof of energy consumption" become its credit foundation linked to physical energy.

Ethereum, with its smart contract ecosystem, is becoming the "refinery" of the "digital oil." Tokenization of energy trade, carbon credit settlements, decentralized grids—these applications are transforming ETH into the underlying asset of a "programmable energy economy."

2026 Practical Strategy: Layout in the Cracks, Explode in Silence

Core logic: The contraction of liquidity in traditional markets (high interest rates) will coexist with the rising independence of crypto markets. This is not a paradox but a signal of a dual-track financial system's birth.

Positioning suggestions:

1. Defensive Anchor (30-40%): Gold + Bitcoin spot ETF, hedge against fiat devaluation risk.

2. Offensive Pincer (40-50%): ZEC (privacy settlement narrative) + XRP (cross-border payment narrative), capture de-dollarization benefits.

3. Options Enhancement (10-20%): ETH DeFi yield products, gain liquidity premiums.

Key Monitoring Indicators:

• Actual Venezuelan crude oil production data (monthly OPEC reports)

• Russia's crypto trade settlement share (Chainalysis tracking)

• Central bank digital asset holdings (IMF Financial Stability Report)

• ZEC privacy TVL growth (Rhea Finance dashboard)

• XRP exchange supply (touching 8-year lows, potential supply shocks)

Soul-Searching Questions and Answers

If the oil dollar system cracks, who are the biggest winners?

In the short term, Bitcoin will take the lead—highest path dependence from institutional funds and regulatory clarity. But mid-term (2026-2028), ZEC could emerge as the biggest dark horse: when sovereign entities start using crypto for "private" energy trade, privacy-compliant coins' demand will shift from "speculation" to "strategic material," and this narrative leap could revalue assets similar to Bitcoin's glory in 2016-2017.

XRP will follow a steady path, becoming the "municipal bonds" of the transition from traditional finance to crypto—low yield but high certainty.

🔥【Interactive Topic】🔥

Brothers, in this grand dismantling of the oil dollar system:

1. Which can capture the trillion-dollar energy trade settlement market better—privacy coins (ZEC) or payment coins (XRP)?

2. If the Fed is forced to restart QE in 2026, will Bitcoin first reach 150,000 or Ethereum break through 10,000?

3. What are your positions in gold, BTC, ZEC, and XRP respectively?

Leave your insights in the comments. If I get over a thousand likes, I will do a live trading session! Share with your crypto comrades still sleeping—let’s find the light in the cracks together in 2026! 💎🚀

#加密市场开年反弹 $ETH