Why do Bitcoin bear market bottoms frequently occur around Christmas? Historical data reveals the 14-year cycle pattern

From a Bitcoin price of less than $1 in 2010 to the present day, Bitcoin has experienced an unimaginable growth trajectory. Data shows that by the end of 2024, BTC price will reach $98,200, setting a new high. As market analysts begin to focus on an interesting historical phenomenon: Bitcoin’s bear market bottoms seem to always occur around Christmas.

The Story Behind the Historical Bottom Pattern

Looking back at Bitcoin’s 14-year price history, this pattern indeed holds true. Around Christmas 2014, BTC price dropped to $319; during the same period in 2018, it even fell below the $4,000 mark, reaching a low of $3,815; the bottom at the end of 2022 was around $16,831. These three significant bear market bottoms all formed during the holiday season at the end of the year, prompting in-depth reflections on market cycles within the industry.

Nano Labs founder Kong Jianping analyzed this phenomenon and pointed out that this cyclical fluctuation is not a coincidence but a concentrated reflection of market participant behavior patterns and capital flow changes within specific time windows.

Predictions for 2025 and Current Trends

According to market analysis forecasts, in 2025, BTC may find support around $88,000, representing a correction from the high in 2024. The latest data shows that Bitcoin’s current price fluctuates around $92,730. Comparing the historical bottoms to the current price level, the market remains in a relatively stable phase.

The Deeper Logic Behind Market Fluctuations

Why do adjustments tend to occur at the end of the year? On one hand, the end of the year is a concentrated period for fund and institutional rebalancing, where large capital flows can trigger price volatility; on the other hand, retail investors may adjust their positions around Christmas holidays, causing liquidity changes. This market volatility precisely reflects the ongoing maturation process of the digital asset market.

Looking at Bitcoin price from 2010, Bitcoin has achieved nearly 400,000 times growth, and each cycle’s adjustment has been a preparation for a new upward cycle. Historical data shows that true long-term holders often take contrarian positions during these anticipated adjustment periods.