Gold Price Predictions Today: Comprehensive Technical and Economic Analysis | November 7

Gold Balances Between Weakening Dollar and Volatile Markets

Gold is experiencing a pivotal turning point today as it approaches the $4,000 per ounce level. The price reflects multiple influences: increasing weakness of the US dollar on one hand, and rising concerns over a slowdown in the labor market on the other. This combination creates a favorable environment for increased safe-haven demand for the yellow metal amid growing economic uncertainty.

Dollar Retreats and Gold Regains Its Appeal

The dollar index fell by about 0.5% after reaching a four-month high, a retreat that opened the door for foreign investors to buy back gold after a period of very high costs. With this decline in the US currency, gold rose by 0.5% to $3,996.72 per ounce in early trading, while December futures increased by 0.3% to $4,004.40.

This movement reflects the market’s attempt to establish a new price base before any larger move. Current liquidity indicates market anticipation of key economic data that could determine the next trajectory for gold and major currencies together.

US Labor Market Shows Signs of Weakness

Recent economic data tell a different story from what markets expected. Job losses occurred in October, especially in government and retail sectors, while layoffs plans exceeded 150,000 jobs — the highest increase in over 20 years.

Federal Reserve estimates in Chicago suggest the unemployment rate has risen to around 4.36%, amid the absence of full official data due to the ongoing government shutdown exceeding 37 days. This situation has led markets to raise expectations of a rate cut in December from 60% to nearly 69%, reflecting a rapid change in expectations regarding monetary policy.

Any additional weakness in upcoming data will increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to revert to monetary easing. Under these conditions, gold benefits from lower opportunity costs and growing safe-haven demand.

Bond Yields Decline and Indices Fall

10-year government bond yields have decreased from their monthly highs, indicating that the market is reassessing the strength of the US economy based on the latest data. This decline reduces the costs of holding gold, an asset that does not generate direct income.

Global stock markets are facing clear pressures: Wall Street indices declined at the last open, with notable selling pressure in the technology and AI sectors. Investors are reassessing current stock valuations, seeing that prices require a more accommodative monetary environment to justify their high levels.

Geopolitical Developments Reinforce Safe-Haven Demand

Current geopolitical issues play a central role in attracting liquidity toward gold. Investors realize that any disruption in supply chains or energy routes could lead to renewed inflation. This possibility prompts major funds to increase their defensive asset components as a precaution.

Conflicting diplomatic reports heighten caution: the more fragile the easing path appears, the higher the cost of ignoring hedging. This explains the current scene of selective stock selling versus increased interest in gold as a store of value.

Technical Analysis of Gold Price Forecast

On the four-hour timeframe, gold is moving within a relatively sideways range between $3,975 and $4,046. The price remains above the important support level at $3,928, which has halted previous downward waves multiple times.

The main resistance remains at $4,046 — a breakout above this level is needed to confirm a short-term bullish reversal. Trading volume is average, indicating no clear decision from major traders at present.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 53, indicating a relative recovery in momentum without reaching overbought levels. This supports the likelihood of continued sideways movement in the coming sessions unless a new clear momentum emerges.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

Primary Support:

• $3,985
• $3,935
• $3,886

Main Resistance:

• $4,046
• $4,100
• $4,150

Expected Scenarios

Positive Scenario: If gold manages to stay above $4,046, the door opens for renewed momentum toward $4,100 and then $4,150. Technical indicators on the medium-term suggest the beginning of a recovery in momentum with moving averages forming a new upward rebound.

Downside Scenario: A clear break below $3,985 could quickly send the price back toward $3,935, which will determine whether the decline is just a healthy correction or the start of a deeper wave toward $3,886.

Precious Metals: No Sector Momentum

There is no collective buying surge in precious metals — the rise is focused solely on gold driven by macroeconomic factors, not by industrial or broad investment momentum. Silver remains below a key resistance near $49, and a breakout could signal confidence in continued capital flow into metals overall.

Platinum needs to defend support at $1,500 to avoid entering a deeper decline. Price dispersion within the group favors gold as the clear preferred safe-haven asset at this stage.

Summary

Gold price outlook remains cautiously positive. Buyers dominate whenever the price approaches the support zone around $3,985. The upward trend remains intact as long as prices stay above this level. Gold continues to position itself as a preferred safe-haven in the market, but the bullish path requires confirmation through breaking key resistances that have capped the price since the beginning of the week.