Gold in 2026: Are we expecting levels of $5000 or an imminent collapse?

The year 2025 began with shocking surprises for gold prices, as the yellow metal broke the $4300 per ounce barrier in October, then retreated toward $4000 in November, sparking intense debate: Will this crazy rally continue to $5000 in 2026, or are we on the verge of a harsh correction?

The Numbers Speak: Gold Statistics in 2025

The average gold price in 2025 was around $3455 per ounce, but the movement was not linear. Gold attracted record investment demand totaling 1249 tons in Q2 alone, a 45% increase in value over the previous year.

Exchange-Traded Gold Funds (ETFs) took center stage: They absorbed massive capital inflows with assets under management reaching $472 billion, and holdings increased to 3838 tons (up 6% quarter-over-quarter), approaching a historical peak estimated at 3929 tons. This means individual investors (especially 28% of new investors in developed markets) entered the gold market for the first time and maintained their positions even during corrections.

Why did demand for gold jump?

1. Central banks’ greed is unstoppable

Central banks added 244 tons in Q1 2025 alone, a 24% increase over the five-year average. Most importantly: 44% of central banks worldwide now manage gold reserves compared to 37% in 2024. China, Turkey, and India led the buyers, with the People’s Bank of China adding 65 tons in the same period.

The council’s forecasts indicate this central appetite will continue through the end of 2026, especially from emerging markets trying to protect their currencies from exchange rate volatility.

2. Supply is confined in cages

Mine production reached 856 tons in Q1 (up just 1% annually), but extraction costs rose to $1470 per ounce—the highest in a decade. Producers prefer to wait rather than expand output, and recycled gold decreased by 1% as owners expect further increases.

3. The dollar weakens and yields collapse

The dollar index fell 7.64% from its peak at the start of the year through November 2025. US 10-year bond yields plummeted from 4.6% to 4.07%. Both factors favor gold.

4. Geopolitical tensions fuel fear

US-China trade conflicts and Middle East tensions increased safe-haven demand by 7% annually. When crises escalate, gold jumps.

2026 Outlook: Who Says What?

Optimists (The Many):

• HSBC: $5000 in the first half of 2026, average $4600 for the year
• Bank of America: $5000 as a potential peak, average $4400
• Goldman Sachs: raised forecast to $4900
• J.P. Morgan: $5055 by mid-2026

Consensus: The most traded range among analysts is $4800-$5000 as a peak, with an average of $4200-$4800.

But what about a crash?

Don’t be mistaken—risks exist:

Inevitable corrections: HSBC predicts a correction toward $4200 in the second half of 2026 if investors take profits. However, a drop below $3800 is unlikely unless a severe economic shock occurs.

Credibility test: Goldman Sachs warned that prices above $4800 could face a “price credibility test”—can real demand support these levels? Industrial demand is weak right now.

Recession scenario: If inflation suddenly collapses and markets regain confidence, gold may never reach $5000.

Technical picture: What does the chart say?

Gold closed on November 21, 2025, at $4065, after hitting a peak of $4381 on October 20.

Support and resistance lines:

• Strong support: $4000—breaking this means targeting $3800 (50% Fibonacci correction)
• First resistance: $4200
• Second resistance: $4400
• Long-term target: $4680

Momentum indicators:

• RSI settled at 50—completely neutral, no overbought or oversold signals
• MACD remains above zero—the overall trend is still bullish

Short-term outlook: Gold trades within a sideways upward range between $4000-$4220, and the outlook remains positive as long as it stays above the main trendline.

Geopolitical and monetary roadmap

The big question: Will the Fed cut or hike rates?

The Fed cut by 25 basis points in October (to 3.75-4%), and markets are pricing in another cut in December 2025. BlackRock’s forecasts: the Fed could reach 3.4% by the end of 2026 in a moderate scenario. Every cut = dollar weakness and lower yields = stronger gold.

The European Central Bank is tightening, but the Bank of Japan remains accommodative. This divergence has created a favorable environment for safe havens.

Warning: The global economy is slowing, and debt exceeds 100% of GDP worldwide. This supports gold but could also trigger unexpected monetary shocks.

Gold outlook in the Middle East

In Egypt: CoinCodex forecasts suggest gold could reach around 522,580 Egyptian pounds per ounce (up 158% from current).

In Saudi Arabia and the UAE: If gold hits $5000, the value in riyals could approach 18750-19000 SAR (assuming exchange rates of 3.75-3.80), and in the UAE about 18375-19000 AED.

But remember: these forecasts depend on currency stability and continued global demand.

The bottom line: The biggest bet

Gold has already entered a new price range that’s hard to break downward, thanks to a strategic shift in investor perception (from short-term speculation to long-term asset). Data supports upward movement, and monetary factors are currently favorable.

But history teaches us: every peak is followed by corrections. The question is not “Will gold rise?” but “When will the rally pause and how much will it fall?”

If real yields continue to decline and the dollar remains weak, $5000 is possible. Otherwise, if inflation suddenly collapses or market confidence returns, gold may enter a long stabilization phase far from targeted levels.

Smart investors will watch the $4000 line—breaking below it = beware. Holding above support = rally continues.