Will the price of gold decrease in the coming days? 2026 predictions between rise and correction

New Record Levels Await Gold in 2026

The precious metal experienced an unprecedented upward movement in 2025, surpassing the $4,300 per ounce barrier in October before falling back near $4,000 in November, raising sharp questions about the upcoming price trajectory and the possibility of gold reaching $5,000. This rise came amid concerns over a global economic slowdown and the return of accommodative monetary policies, prompting investors to turn toward safe-haven assets, with gold as a primary hedge.

Gold price forecasts for 2026 are shaped by multiple factors: investment demand, central bank purchases, global monetary policies, inflation and sovereign debt levels, as well as geopolitical tensions and dollar movements. Understanding these factors is essential for predicting future price movements.

Major Bank Outlooks: Ambitious Bullish Scenarios

Leading global banks have significantly upgraded their forecasts:

HSBC Bank expects gold to reach $5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2026, with an annual average of $4,600, compared to $3,455 in 2025.

Bank of America raised its forecast to $5,000 as a potential peak, with an expected average of $4,400, but warned of a short-term correction for profit-taking.

Goldman Sachs adjusted its forecast to $4,900 per ounce, citing strong inflows into gold ETFs and continued central bank buying.

J.P. Morgan predicts the price could reach around $5,055 by mid-2026, based on comprehensive market analysis.

The most common range among analysts spans between $4,800 and $5,000 as a potential peak in 2026.

Global Demand Continues to Rise

The World Gold Council estimated total demand in Q2 2025 at 1,249 tons, up 3% annually and 45% in value. Gold ETF inflows surged, pushing assets under management to $472 billion and holdings to 3,838 tons, up 6%, close to a historic peak estimated at 3,929 tons.

Record investment demand, especially from new investors (about 28% of investors in developed markets added gold for the first time), supports expectations of rising gold prices rather than falling.

Central Banks Continue Massive Purchases

44% of global central banks now hold gold reserves, up from 37% in 2024, reflecting a strategic shift toward diversification away from the dollar. Central banks added 244 tons in Q1 2025, a 24% increase over the previous five-year quarterly average.

China, Turkey, and India led the buying spree, with the People’s Bank of China alone adding over 65 tons for 22 consecutive months. These purchases are expected to remain the main driver of demand through the end of 2026.

Limited Supply and Ongoing Gap

Mine production reached a record 856 tons in Q1 2025, but the 1% annual increase is insufficient to bridge the gap between rising demand and limited supply. Recycled gold declined by 1%, as owners prefer to hold onto their gold amid expectations of continued price increases.

Average global production costs rose to $1,470 per ounce in mid-2025, the highest in a decade, limiting the potential for rapid supply increases.

Monetary Policy and Interest Rates: Clear Support for Upside

The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00% in October 2025, with expectations of an additional 25 basis point cut in December 2025. Chicago Fed data prices in this cut strongly, which could weaken the dollar and boost gold price expectations.

BlackRock forecasts that interest rates could reach 3.4% by the end of 2026 in a moderate scenario, reducing opportunity costs for gold and enhancing its appeal as a safe asset.

Other major central banks (European, Japanese) are adopting easing policies, increasing the attractiveness of the precious metal globally.

Inflation and Debt: Catalysts for Safe-Haven Demand

The International Monetary Fund noted that global public debt has exceeded 100% of GDP, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability. 42% of major hedge funds increased their gold holdings in Q3 2025, seeking a safe haven against sovereign debt risks.

Dollar weakness and slowing growth supported commodity prices overall and gold in particular, which is increasingly viewed as a safe alternative amid rising financial risks.

Geopolitical Tensions Boost Demand by 7%

Geopolitical uncertainty in 2025 increased gold demand by 7% annually, according to Reuters. Trade conflicts between the US and China, along with tensions in the Middle East and Taiwan, prompted major funds to hedge against emerging market risks.

As fears escalated, prices jumped from $3,400 in July to over $4,300 in October 2025, reinforcing expectations that any new shock in 2026 could push gold prices to new record levels.

Dollar Movement and Yields: A Clear Inverse Relationship

Gold moves inversely to the US dollar and real bond yields. The dollar index declined about 7.64% from its peak in early 2025 until November 21, influenced by rate cut expectations and slowing growth.

US 10-year bond yields fell from 4.6% to 4.07% in the same period. This dual decline helped support institutional demand for gold, as investors seek to balance away from dollar-denominated assets.

Bank of America analysts see that continuation of this trend could support gold price forecasts in 2026, especially with real yields stabilizing near 1.2% and ongoing dollar pressure.

Will Gold Prices Fall in the Coming Days and Months?

Despite overall optimism, short-term corrections are possible. HSBC warned that upward momentum could weaken in the second half of 2026, with a correction toward $4,200 per ounce if investors take profits, but excluding a drop below $3,800 unless a major economic shock occurs.

Goldman Sachs warned that prices remaining above $4,800 could test market credibility, i.e., gold’s ability to sustain high levels amid weak industrial demand.

However, analysts at J.P. Morgan and Deutsche Bank agree that gold has entered a new price zone that is difficult to break downward, thanks to a strategic shift in investor perception of gold as a long-term asset rather than just a short-term speculative tool.

Technical Analysis: Temporary Neutrality Before a New Decision

Gold closed at $4,065.01 per ounce on November 21, 2025, after touching a historic high of $4,381.44 on October 20. The price broke the upward channel but still maintains the main short- to medium-term uptrend.

$4,000 represents a strong support level. If broken with a clear daily close, the price could target the $3,800 zone (50% Fibonacci retracement) before resuming its ascent.

On the resistance side, $4,200 is the first strong resistance level, with a break above opening the way toward $4,400 and $4,680 gradually.

RSI remains at 50, indicating a neutral market with no clear bias. MACD stays above zero, confirming the continuation of the overall bullish trend.

Technical analysis suggests continued sideways trading within a rising range between $4,000 and $4,220 in the near term, with the overall picture remaining positive as long as the price stays above the main trendline.

Middle East Outlook: Encouraging Local Figures

The Middle East region has seen a notable increase in central bank gold reserves. In Egypt, forecasts suggest the price could reach around 522,580 Egyptian pounds per ounce, a 158.46% increase over current prices.

In Saudi Arabia, if gold prices approach $5,000, this could translate to approximately 18,750 to 19,000 SAR per ounce (at an exchange rate of 3.75 to 3.80).

In the UAE, the same translation could give a value around 18,375 to 19,000 AED per ounce.

Summary: Balance Between Upside and Caution

Gold price forecasts for 2026 appear pivotal in determining whether the precious metal maintains its status as a safe haven amid increasing global risks. As the monetary tightening cycle nears its end and the global economy enters a slowdown phase, the market may face a tug-of-war between profit-taking and new buying waves from central banks and major institutions.

If real yields continue to decline and the dollar remains weak, gold is poised to reach new historic highs close to $5,000. Conversely, if inflation subsides and market confidence returns, the metal could enter a prolonged stabilization phase, preventing the achievement of the higher target levels.