Relying on a single technical indicator for decision-making can easily lead to pitfalls; it's important to consider multiple timeframes together. BTC is currently in this interesting state—short-term momentum is recovering, but the medium- to long-term trend has not yet been fully confirmed.

Looking at the daily chart, a "W double bottom" pattern is beginning to form, which is a relatively strong reversal signal. The neckline is stuck in the 92,000-92,500 range. If the breakout on January 5th can hold steady, it could theoretically push toward around 98,000. The price has also firmly broken above various short-term moving averages (like the 21-day EMA). The key next step is for the weekly close to stay above 93,000; only then can the weekly moving average system shift from a bearish to a bullish alignment, confirming a medium-term reversal.

The performance on short cycles (1-hour, 4-hour) is very aggressive, with bullish momentum driven by the resonance of multiple timeframes. The MACD has a golden cross above the zero line, and the EMA is in a bullish arrangement, indicating strong buying pressure. Sounds great, right? But the problem is—the weekly resistance level has not yet been broken. Since the peak at $126,000 last October, the descending trendline intersects with the 92,000-94,000 zone, creating resistance. Plus, the 200-day moving average (around 101,700) remains high, so the long-term trend reversal is not yet complete. The 100-day, 50-day, and 20-day moving averages are all in a downward arrangement between 88,700 and 101,500, presenting significant resistance.

There is some "discoordination" between the short-term and medium-term, and the cooperation between volume and open interest needs to be observed.