Market Analysis Today: $BTC and $ETH

The current rebound of the crypto market is entirely within the time window before the FOMC meeting on January 27. At present, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates is only about 16%, indicating that it is almost certain there will be no rate cut in January. This means: The market lacks enough macroeconomic catalysts to form a new bullish cycle. The current upward movements are more technical, serving as a recovery after the late-year sell-off in 2025. $BTC – Technical Rebound in a Medium-Term Downtrend Price Structure: Recovery but Not Strong Enough From a structural perspective: BTC’s drop to around $80,000 is essentially an oversold correction, followed by a technical rebound. So far, the price has not reached the Fibonacci 0.618 level, indicating that the rebound strength is still weak. Therefore, this rally should only be considered a “pullback” in a downtrend, not enough to call it a trend reversal. Important Levels to Watch $94,000: → A key level that determines whether BTC can sustain the rebound. → If it does not hold above $94,000, it is highly likely the price will return to the $90,000 zone to accumulate and “wear down” buying pressure. $91,000 – $92,000: → Considered the short-term critical level for the Long side. → Losing this zone significantly increases the probability of an extended correction. Medium – Long Term Perspective (Weekly Frame) Looking at the weekly chart: The major upward wave has officially ended. The market is now in a decline cycle, and what is happening is just a rebound within a downtrend. Notable levels: Weekly support: around $75,000Strong resistance: $98,000 – $100,000 👉 From a long-term logical perspective, the scenario of BTC returning to the “7x.xxx” zone still needs to be seriously considered, with no signs of a true trend reversal yet. (– Clearer Structure for BTC Compared to BTC, Ethereum shows a more positive technical structure: Key level: $3,170As long as ETH does not effectively break below this zone, the short-term bullish trend remains intact.Next target: $3,400In the current context, this is a high-probability level. ETH may move sideways, fluctuate, or accumulate, which is not an issue. The most important thing is: Maintain the “right-side trading” trend and do not break the structure. Summary BTC: → The current rally is a technical rebound, not a confirmed reversal. → $94,000 is a major hurdle, and $91,000–$92,000 is a short-term critical boundary. ETH: → More positive structure, just need to hold above $3,170. → $3,400 is a feasible target in this rally. 👉 The current phase is not suitable for FOMO, but appropriate for risk management, observing price reactions at key levels, and waiting for clearer signals from both technical and macro perspectives.