2026-01-06 03:20:45

#以太坊大户持仓变化 $ETH's trend aligns quite well with my previous judgment. Is it a slow bull rise? Actually, the logic behind it is very simple—dragging out the time. Extending this small bull market cycle to make the profit curve more gradual. But what is the reality? The upward space is really limited.

$BTC is stuck at the 100,000 level, $ETH is stuck at 4,000. Both of these thresholds are hard to break through. To突破? The difficulty is extremely high.

There's a detail worth pondering: Ethereum has already surpassed 3,000. What does this mean? It means that the 3,000 price level is now confirmed. Want to fall below it again? It requires a fairly long accumulation process. The psychological defense line has already been established; it won't be so easy to break down again.

Based on these observations, I still maintain my previous prediction—around February or March this year, there is a high probability of an epic black swan event. Ethereum might experience an unprecedented sell-off above 3,500. Not a small dip, but a crash that surprises everyone.

How much will it fall? I estimate it could drop more than 1,500-2,000 points, directly surpassing the scale of all black swan events in history. And then? It will directly enter a deep bear market. Levels below 2,000 will stay there for a very long time.

This is not alarmist talk; it is based on current on-chain data and market structure. $SOL and other mainstream coins are also not immune to this cycle. Be prepared.

ETH0,32%

BTC0,13%

SOL0,42%

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CounterIndicator

· 01-09 01:16

I'm just saying, this guy's predictions are for listening, not taking too seriously. Every time he talks about black swans, but where are the black swans? If it really drops below 2000, I'll just eat cereal. I agree that the 3000 support level is confirmed, but a crash in February or March? Uh... let's see first. The logic of a slow bull market dragging out the time is a bit ridiculous. Who's dragging it out?

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NewPumpamentals

· 01-08 19:40

Slow bull? Dragging time? Sounds good, but in reality, it's just lacking upward momentum. For the two thresholds of BTC at 100,000 and ETH at 4,000, I think it still depends on black swan events to hit them. Smashing through 1500-2000 points? Bro, your prediction is a bit too bold, but on-chain data doesn't lie. I was also waiting for that moment in February and March, and it will probably be another round of chopping the leeks. Talking about being prepared is easy; when it really happens, there's not much you can do to prepare. Just listen, don't take it seriously. This logic is indeed smooth; I agree with the 3000 support confirmation. But the psychological defense line? When leverage is involved, no one remembers to have a defense line. If this sideways movement continues, I feel a 30% drop might be the more probable event. Predicting so detailed, we'll see the real story in February.

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gaslight_gasfeez

· 01-07 03:38

Breaking through the 4000 mark is indeed tough; the psychological expectations were set too high. Speaking of a black swan in March or April? This guy really dares to say that, the bet is a bit heavy. I agree that 3000 confirms support, but dropping 1500 points? That seems a bit overly pessimistic. A slow bull market is just about grinding through time; if it doesn't break through soon, it might never happen. Dragging out time and time again, but in the end, you still have to face reality—whether to cut losses or not depends on each individual.

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Tokenomics911

· 01-06 03:50

Wait, is this guy starting to make black swan predictions again? I have to question the matter of March and February. Drop 1500-2000 points? That would be a direct halving? That's pretty intense, brother. Can on-chain data really reveal anything? But 3000 is indeed a psychological barrier, there's no doubt about that.

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GateUser-beba108d

· 01-06 03:50

This guy's prediction is so fierce, let's just wait and see. Anyway, I've already prepared myself psychologically. Drop below 2000? No problem, that will be the opportunity to buy the dip. Slow bull? I feel like this is just slowly cutting the leeks, it's exhausting. The psychological barrier at 3000 actually makes sense, feels like it hit the mark. What to do if a black swan event occurs? What else can we do? Just wait and see. Lower the leverage in advance, and that's it.

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GateUser-6bc33122

· 01-06 03:41

3000 has already become the psychological bottom line. No matter how much more it drops, it's hard to believe. --- Predicting black swans again. Will this time be different? --- Slow bullish trend dragging on, in plain words, just fooling people into buying in. --- ETH is stuck at 4000, a bit speechless. --- Black swan in March or February? Why do I feel like these predictions happen every year? --- On-chain data speaks, but data can also be deceptive. --- SOL can't escape either? Fine, that's just how the crypto world is. --- Dropping directly from 1500-2000 points, feels like this guy is telling a science fiction story. --- Confirming 3000 is just that—confirmed. But I still don't believe it. --- If an epic black swan really happens, I will completely withdraw.

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DegenMcsleepless

· 01-06 03:39

Wow, this prediction is really intense. Will we stay below 2000 for a long time? My mining costs are about to skyrocket again. But on the other hand, has the psychological barrier of 3000 really been established? It feels like the market isn't as rational anymore. If this black swan really comes, it might be even worse than the one in 2023. Is it really so hard for ETH to break 4000? It always feels like we're stuck here. What does "getting prepared" mean? Should I reduce my holdings now or continue to buy the dip... Dropping 1500-2000 points is truly outrageous. How much impact would that require?

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MetaverseLandlord

· 01-06 03:37

Slow bull, my ass. They're just fooling bagholders. --- Breaking 3000? If it really can't hold, I think it's just self-comfort. --- Black swan crashes 2000 points? Bro, your prediction is way off. --- BTC hits 100,000 ETH hits 4,000, isn't that just a lack of strength? --- Psychological defense line haha, a single plunge in reality and it's all collapsing. --- February, March this year? Let's see first, such predictions are the least reliable. --- Drop 1500-2000? That would directly return us to a bear market... Are you scaring people or really think so?

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RideTheBull77

· 01-06 03:24

2026 Go Go Go 👊

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