In recent months, many people in the crypto world have been calling for a bear market. Listen to these arguments: some claim that this downturn is the end, saying liquidity has dried up beyond salvation; others are starting to bearish on BTC, turning to physical assets as if digital currencies have no hope left.

But think carefully, this routine has been played out year after year. Whenever the market drops, bearish voices emerge; when it rises, many shout that BTC will hit 1 million USD and advocate for full-position HODLing. This is the usual operation in the crypto circle, the cyclical law is right there.

The key question is—who can truly predict what will happen next? The crypto market itself is relatively young, and the data sample is limited. History never repeats itself exactly, let alone according to anyone’s ideas. Market trends are influenced by too many factors—policies, technological advancements, macroeconomic conditions... even a single variable can rewrite the script. Instead of being swayed by various arguments, it’s better to understand that this is the normal state of the market—uncertainty is the greatest certainty.