Will gold surpass $5000 in 2026? Analysts outline the possible scenarios

In 2025, we witnessed a strong golden wave like never before, with prices breaking the $4300 barrier in October before retreating towards $4000 recently. But the real question now: what awaits us in the coming year?

Factors Driving Gold Higher

Data speaks clearly. Unprecedented global demand for gold, with total (investment + industrial) demand in Q2 2025 reaching 1249 tons, a 45% increase in value. Gold ETFs attracted massive inflows, raising assets under management to $472 billion, with holdings approaching a record peak of 3929 tons.

Central banks are not stopping their purchases. 44% of central banks worldwide now manage gold reserves compared to 37% last year. China alone added more than 65 tons in the first half of 2025, continuing this trend for the twenty-second consecutive month, while Turkey increased its reserves to 600 tons.

On the supply side, the available supply is very tight. Mine production reached 856 tons in Q1, but this does not close the gap with rising demand. Recycled gold declined by 1% as people prefer to hold onto their assets amid bullish outlooks. Extraction costs rose to $1470 per ounce, the highest level in a decade, limiting production expansion.

Monetary Policy: The Double-Edged Sword

The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates twice since December 2024, the latest a 25 basis point cut in October, with market expectations indicating a third cut in December. European and Japanese central banks are also adopting easing paths, weakening currencies and reducing real yields on bonds, thus increasing the attractiveness of the yellow metal.

However, there are reservations. The World Bank expects inflation pressures to ease in 2026, which may reduce safe-haven demand. Global public debt has surpassed 100% of GDP, raising concerns but also reinforcing gold’s role as a hedge against financial crises.

The Dollar and Yields: The Critical Equation

The dollar index has declined 7.64% from its peak at the start of the year to November. US 10-year bond yields fell from 4.6% to 4.07%. This combination makes gold more attractive to foreign investors, and earning fixed returns is not worth sacrificing safety.

Bank of America analysts see that continuing this trend will support price expectations in 2026, especially with real yields remaining low around 1.2%.

Geopolitics: An Unignorable Factor

Trade tensions between the US and China, and Middle East tensions, increased gold demand by 7% year-over-year in 2025. As fears about the Taiwan Strait and energy supplies intensified, prices jumped to $3400 in July, then surpassed $4300 in October. Any new shock in 2026 could push prices to new record levels.

Consensus: Where Is Gold Heading?

HSBC Bank projected gold at $5000 in the first half of 2026, with an annual average of $4600.

Bank of America raised its forecast to $5000 as a potential peak but warned of short-term corrections if investors start taking profits.

Goldman Sachs adjusted its forecast to $4900, citing strong inflows into gold funds.

J.P. Morgan expects gold to reach around $5055 by mid-2026.

The most consistent range: between $4800 and $5000 as a peak, and an average between $4200 and $4800 for the year.

The Downside Scenario: Is It Really Happening?

HSBC warned that momentum might lose some strength in the second half of 2026, with a possible correction toward $4200 if investors take profits, but it excluded a drop below $3800 unless a real economic shock occurs.

Goldman Sachs warned that staying above $4800 could form a “price credibility test” for gold’s ability to stabilize amid weak industrial demand.

However, major banks agree that gold has entered a new price zone that is difficult to break downward, due to the strategic shift in investors’ view of it as a long-term asset rather than just a speculative tool.

Technical Picture: What Do Charts Say?

The latest close for gold was at $4065 on November 21, after touching a high of $4381 on October 20.

The price broke out of an upward channel but remains anchored to the main rising trendline around $4050. Strong support at $4000 will determine whether the decline continues.

The RSI( (Relative Strength Index)) is at 50, indicating a neutral market with no overbought or oversold conditions. MACD remains bullish above zero.

Analysis suggests gold will stay in a sideways range tilted upward between $4000 and $4220 in the near term, with the overall picture remaining positive as long as it stays above the main trendline.

Middle East: Specific Figures

In Egypt: CoinCodex forecasts suggest gold reaching approximately 522,580 EGP per ounce, an increase of 158% over current prices.

In Saudi Arabia: If gold prices approach $5000 (as banks have forecast), this could translate to about 18,750 to 19,000 SAR per ounce.

In the UAE: Under the same scenario, around 18,375 to 19,000 AED.

But these forecasts assume exchange rate stability and continued global demand without major shocks.

Summary: Betting on Safe Havens

Gold forecasts for the coming year revolve around a struggle between profit-taking and new buying waves from banks and institutions. If real yields remain low and the dollar stays weak, the metal is poised for new highs. But if market confidence returns and inflation declines, the metal may settle at higher levels than before without reaching $5000.

Ultimately, gold has remained and will continue to be a primary investment choice in times of uncertainty.