2025 Gold Price Trend Analysis: Spot Price Movements and Year-round Outlook

Gold prices have been on an upward trend since last year, continuing a strong rally amid increasing global economic uncertainties and geopolitical instability. As a result, more investors are paying attention to gold as a safe-haven asset. In this article, we will analyze the current gold price status and the key factors driving price fluctuations, as well as explore the outlook for gold prices in the second half of 2025.

Spot Market Gold Prices: Current Domestic and International Rates

Domestic Gold Price Status

As of July 5th, according to Korea Gold Exchange, the domestic gold price is 635,000 KRW per 3.75g of 1 don. This represents approximately a 43% increase from 443,000 KRW on July 5th, 2024. The price has steadily risen from the beginning of the year through May, but since May, the pace of increase has slowed.

International Spot Market Gold Price

According to M-Trade, as of July 5th, the international gold price is approximately $3,337.04 per ounce. This marks an increase of about 27% since the beginning of this year and roughly 39% compared to one year ago. Considering it is early in the third quarter, this is a steep upward trajectory. Although recent momentum appears to have somewhat weakened, there are no clear signs of a significant decline yet.

Major Variables Influencing Gold Price Fluctuations

Since domestic and international gold prices tend to follow similar trends, understanding the key factors affecting the global gold market is essential for predicting future price movements.

( Reorganization of the International Monetary System: De-dollarization Movements

Several countries are actively pursuing policies to reduce their reliance on the US dollar in international trade and finance. The main goals are to strengthen economic sovereignty and evade US sanctions. China is expanding the use of the yuan in bilateral trade and actively engaging in currency swaps to elevate its international status. India is also working to establish a transaction structure centered on the rupee, and sanctioned countries are accumulating gold to lower their dependence on the dollar. These trends are likely to lead to a weaker dollar and increased demand for gold, which could be a major driver of gold price increases.

) Geopolitical Conflicts and Economic Risks

Gold is perceived as a safe-haven asset that preserves value during crises. During the 2008 global financial crisis, gold prices surged sharply, and during the Eurozone debt crisis in 2011, investor demand for gold remained high. In 2020, amid the COVID-19 pandemic, gold hit record highs. Currently, ongoing US-China trade tensions, the Ukraine conflict, and instability in the Middle East continue to sustain high demand for gold.

Economic Slowdowns in Major Economies

Advanced economies are experiencing economic difficulties. The US faces persistent inflation pressures, while Europe is concerned about growth slowdown due to Russia’s energy issues. In this environment, investors are turning to gold as a means of asset protection and inflation hedging.

Rate Cut Cycles

When interest rates fall, the attractiveness of interest-bearing assets like deposits and bonds diminishes, while the opportunity cost of holding gold decreases. Additionally, rate cuts are often signals of economic weakness, which boosts safe-haven demand. As seen after the Federal Reserve’s 50 basis point rate cut on September 18th last year, gold prices surged, and further rate reductions could accelerate this trend.

Scenario Analysis for Gold Prices in 2025

Most financial experts expect gold prices to continue rising into 2025. The forecasts from major financial institutions, compiled by the Financial Times at the start of the year, projected an end-of-year price of $2,795 per ounce, but current prices around $3,337 already significantly exceed initial expectations.

J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and Citi initially targeted $3,000 per ounce for the end of 2025, and this target has already been met. J.P. Morgan revised its 2025 target upward to $3,675 per ounce in a report on July 1st. With only five months remaining in the year and prices surpassing $3,300, reaching this goal appears quite feasible.

Meanwhile, Barclays and Macquarie forecast a decline to $2,500 per ounce by the end of 2025. This scenario implies about a 25% drop from current levels, which seems less likely given the current bullish trend.

Overall, the probability that gold prices will maintain an upward trajectory through 2025 is high. However, some analysts mention the possibility of a correction in the second half, so investors should exercise adequate risk management when making decisions.