Major U.S. Oil Firms Ready to Seize Venezuela's Energy Recovery Opportunity After Political Shift

Following Nicolás Maduro’s exit from power, President Trump has signaled a major opening for American oil companies to re-enter Venezuela’s energy sector. The move represents a dramatic shift in U.S. policy toward one of the world’s most resource-rich nations, now struggling with severely diminished output.

The Investment Landscape: Who’s Positioned to Lead?

Chevron currently holds the most prominent position among U.S. oil operators in Venezuela, but the company faces significant limitations under existing regulatory frameworks. Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips, once dominant players in Venezuelan oil fields before their operations were nationalized roughly two decades ago, are closely monitoring developments for a potential comeback.

Trump’s statement painted an ambitious picture: “We’re going to have our very large U.S. oil companies, the biggest anywhere in the world, go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken oil infrastructure, and start making money for the country.” This declaration has ignited speculation about the scale and speed of potential re-engagement.

The Financial Motivation Behind the Rush

ConocoPhillips faces a compelling incentive to re-enter the market—Venezuela owes the company over $10 billion in compensation from past nationalization. Whether the firm will pursue recovery through reinvestment or attempt other collection mechanisms remains an open question.

According to Francisco Monaldi, director of the Latin America Energy Program at Rice University’s Baker Institute, Chevron stands to benefit most immediately given its existing operational knowledge. However, he emphasized that the broader investment climate and legal certainty will ultimately determine how aggressively other firms move: “Exxon, Conoco, and Chevron are not likely to hesitate in investing in heavy oil, particularly given U.S. demand, regardless of lesser focus on decarbonization.”

The Scale of the Challenge

The restoration effort represents an enormous undertaking. Venezuela’s oil production has collapsed from 3.2 million barrels per day in 2000 to approximately 921,000 bpd as of November 2024, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data. Peter McNally, Global Head of Sector Analysts at Third Bridge, projects that revitalizing this critical sector will demand tens of billions of dollars and potentially a decade-long commitment from Western energy companies.

Critical infrastructure providers—including SLB, Baker Hughes, Halliburton, and Weatherford—possess essential expertise for heavy crude extraction but have maintained public silence on their involvement plans. Chevron’s century-long operational history in the country gives it institutional advantages, though the company has had to navigate complex U.S. regulatory hurdles, including license revocations and reinstatements throughout recent administrations.

Geopolitical Leverage and Military Positioning

The energy opportunity exists within a broader military and diplomatic context. Trump reaffirmed that U.S. military forces will maintain their regional presence “until United States demands have been fully met and fully satisfied,” signaling that energy investments occur under Washington’s strategic oversight.

With Venezuela holding the world’s largest proven oil reserves yet facing production rates a fraction of historical peaks, the coming months will reveal whether American capital can realistically unlock this dormant resource for both the country’s recovery and Western energy security.