Bitcoin faces resistance at US$ 90,000 as promising cryptocurrencies suffer from reduced liquidity and short positions reach US$ 250 million

Bitcoin started the week under significant selling pressure, testing the $87,700 zone after another rejection at the $90,000 barrier. This level has become the main technical reference, concentrating liquidity and attracting sell orders from previous weeks. The inability to break this mark keeps the asset in a sideways movement, with no clear direction defined between buyers and sellers.

The current context is marked by a mismatch in capital flows. While gold and silver hit all-time highs amid macroeconomic uncertainty, Bitcoin does not follow the same dynamism, contradicting the historical patterns of positive correlation in risk-off environments. This divergence suggests a selective reallocation of capital among defensive assets.

Technical dynamics through the lens of moving averages

On the four-hour chart, Bitcoin faces recurring rejections at the 200-period simple and exponential moving averages. These structures act as control zones and define dynamic barriers for medium-term movements. As long as the price remains below these averages, lateral behavior is likely to persist, with more support tests than directional advances.

Recovering this level is an essential condition for restoring a more robust bullish structure. Each attempt to break through has been accompanied by exponential increases in supply, preventing stronger moves and maintaining the balance between demand and supply.

Short positions and seasonal liquidity reductions

Institutions have opened short positions in Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana totaling approximately US$250 million, as a defensive strategy against the risk of further corrections. The impact of these operations is amplified in a compressed liquidity environment, characterized by reduced depth in order books.

As the year-end approaches, many traders have retracted exposure to preserve accumulated gains. This seasonal behavior significantly reduces global liquidity, increasing market sensitivity to smaller operations and causing abrupt volatility even in the absence of external catalysts.

Limited market depth raises the probability of sharper movements during volatile periods, requiring greater caution from participants.

Technical divergences signaling selling exhaustion

Momentum indicators show constructive signals despite price weakness. On the three-day chart, the RSI registers higher lows while the price forms lower lows—characteristic of a classic bullish divergence. Similar patterns in previous cycles preceded significant upward movements.

Divergence is also evident in the BTC/XAU ratio. With gold approaching US$4,500 per ounce, Bitcoin shows a relative loss of value, suggesting possible technical compression. This dynamic does not act as an isolated trigger but indicates a progressive weakening of selling pressure.

During the Christmas week, liquidity tends to remain reduced, amplifying both continuation moves and quick reversals in response to macroeconomic data.

Miner capitulation and hash rate reorganization

The network is experiencing a critical stress period for miners. The hash rate has fallen 4%—the steepest decline since the first half of 2024—paralleling a 9% monthly drop in price. The 30-day realized volatility has exceeded 45%, not seen since April 2025.

Less efficient operators have shut down equipment to avoid operational losses, reducing structural selling pressure in the medium term. This process of marginal agent elimination tends to create stability once it removes the urgent need to liquidate assets to cover costs.

Infrastructure shift: Xinjiang, artificial intelligence, and entry barriers

About 400,000 machines were shut down in Xinjiang province, removing approximately 1.3 GW of capacity in 24 hours. The reallocation of energy to artificial intelligence data centers reflects higher margins offered by this activity compared to traditional mining.

Estimates indicate that up to 10% of the global hash rate could be permanently lost in this process. The reorganization concentrates mining among operators with access to cheaper energy and more efficient infrastructure, significantly raising entry barriers.

For equipment like Bitmain S19 XP, the breakeven electricity price has fallen from US$0.12 to US$0.077 per kWh in one year—a 36% reduction. Operations unable to keep up with this cost compression face increasing risks of economic infeasibility.

Government support, historical recovery, and medium-term outlook

Despite current difficulties, at least 13 countries participate in Bitcoin mining with some level of state support, aiming for energy or monetary sovereignty. This geographic diversification provides some structural resilience to the ecosystem.

Historically, drops in hash rate have been followed by positive returns in 65% of cases after 90 days. During periods of hash rate contraction within 90-day windows, the six-month average return reached 72%, suggesting miner capitulation often coincides with a progressive exhaustion of selling pressure.

The current scenario, although challenging in the short term, may signal preparation for a more consistent structural recovery in the coming quarters.