The range of 94k–94.8k indeed exhibits extremely obvious spot supply pressure. On one hand, this is a structurally very standard and highly market consensus pressure level; on the other hand, Coinbase's spot premium just briefly turned positive and quickly fell back into negative territory, clearly indicating that a large amount of chips are waiting to be cashed out in this area, rather than genuine sustained buying interest.
In other words, the upward movement here is more driven by liquidity rather than demand.
From a derivatives perspective, it is equally risky—the large number of shorts near this price level have already been liquidated, liquidity above has been quickly drained, and the "fuel" for further upward movement in the short term is extremely limited. In this context, blindly chasing longs again essentially provides a counterparty for smarter funds to offload.
Therefore, the short-term logic has shifted: given the obvious spot supply, weakening premium structure, and high liquidation completion, it is better to consider a pullback rather than fantasize about a straight breakout. The market has never lacked bullish sentiment; what it lacks is respect for the risk structure.
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The range of 94k–94.8k indeed exhibits extremely obvious spot supply pressure. On one hand, this is a structurally very standard and highly market consensus pressure level; on the other hand, Coinbase's spot premium just briefly turned positive and quickly fell back into negative territory, clearly indicating that a large amount of chips are waiting to be cashed out in this area, rather than genuine sustained buying interest.
In other words, the upward movement here is more driven by liquidity rather than demand.
From a derivatives perspective, it is equally risky—the large number of shorts near this price level have already been liquidated, liquidity above has been quickly drained, and the "fuel" for further upward movement in the short term is extremely limited. In this context, blindly chasing longs again essentially provides a counterparty for smarter funds to offload.
Therefore, the short-term logic has shifted: given the obvious spot supply, weakening premium structure, and high liquidation completion, it is better to consider a pullback rather than fantasize about a straight breakout. The market has never lacked bullish sentiment; what it lacks is respect for the risk structure.