Bitcoin remains in a consolidation zone; sellers see an opportunity in $250 million in open positions

The Impasse of the Largest Crypto Asset

Bitcoin continues to face difficulties in making a decisive advance in this session. With a quote around US$ 93,76 thousand (equivalent to approximately 80 thousand yen in reais), the asset still cannot sustain gains above the psychological level of US$ 90 thousand, retreating to lower zones after repeated breakout attempts. Resistance remains the main technical obstacle, accumulating sell orders and capturing short-term liquidity.

The scenario is marked by paralysis — neither buyers nor sellers can impose a clear direction. The price oscillates within a narrow range, fueled by high volatility but without a defined directional catalyst. This sideways dynamic reflects an unstable balance of market forces, common in periods of macroeconomic uncertainty.

Gold Decoupling and Mixed Technical Signals

While precious metals like gold and silver set new all-time highs in search of safety, Bitcoin fails to follow the same capital flow. This disconnect breaks historical patterns and suggests market dynamics unique to crypto.

On the four-hour chart, recurring rejections appear at the 200-period moving averages — both the simple and exponential versions act as effective dynamic resistance. As long as the price remains below these levels, the probability of lateral movement or tests at lower supports remains high. Recovering this level is seen as a fundamental condition to restore a more consistent bullish trend structure.

Interestingly, technical divergences are beginning to emerge as constructive signals. On the three-day chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) registers progressively higher lows while the price continues forming lower lows — a classic bullish divergence setup. Historically, similar patterns in previous cycles preceded significant moves, although they never serve as an isolated trigger.

Institutional Positioning in a Reduced Liquidity Context

Large investors have opened approximately US$ 250 million in short positions spread across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana combined. This movement does not necessarily indicate directional aggressiveness but rather a defensive strategy against further corrections.

The impact amplifies in a restricted liquidity context. As the year-end approaches, traders have reduced exposure to preserve accumulated profits — a seasonal behavior that contracts order book depth. This reduction makes markets more sensitive to smaller movements, amplifying volatility and reducing the capacity to absorb large volumes without sharp price changes.

Structural Pressure: Miners in Capitulation

The Bitcoin network faces a challenging period on the production side. Reports indicate a 4% drop in the hash rate — the steepest since mid-2024 — occurring alongside a 9% monthly decline in price. The 30-day realized volatility exceeded 45%, a level not recorded since the previous April.

This combination forces less efficient operators to shut down equipment to avoid operational losses. Historically, periods of miner capitulation reduce medium-term structural selling pressure, as they eliminate marginal agents forced to liquidate to cover immediate costs.

Energy Geopolitics: China Reorients Infrastructure

One of the main catalysts was the shutdown of approximately 400,000 machines in Xinjiang province within just 24 hours, removing nearly 1.3 GW of grid capacity. The decision reflects a reallocation of energy to data centers dedicated to artificial intelligence — a sector currently offering higher operational margins than mining.

Estimates suggest that up to 10% of the global hash rate could be permanently lost. This reorganization tends to concentrate mining among operators with access to cheaper energy and more efficient infrastructure, significantly raising the sector’s entry barrier.

Cost Compression and Global Reorganization

For models like Bitmain S19 XP, the electricity break-even price fell from US$ 0.12 to US$ 0.077 per kWh in one year — a 36% decrease. Operations unable to keep pace with this compression face increasing risks of economic infeasibility.

Paradoxically, at least 13 countries are already participating in mining with some level of state support, seeking energy or monetary sovereignty. Historically, hash rate contractions have been followed by positive Bitcoin returns in 65% of cases after 90 days. In contraction windows of six months, the average return reached 72% — suggesting that miner exhaustion often coincides with the end of structural selling pressure.