What's Next for Global Markets in 2026: A Deep Dive Into Institutional Forecasts for Precious Metals, Digital Assets, and Currency Pairs

The New Year Brings Fresh Opportunities—But Also Uncertainty

As we move into 2026 following a volatile 2025, the investment community is divided on where major asset classes will head. Some markets defied gravity last year, while others stumbled. With Bitcoin currently trading around $94.37K and Ethereum at $3.30K as of early January, questions loom: Will the momentum continue? Or will headwinds emerge?

Precious Metals: Gold and Silver Race Higher?

The Golden Story

Last year was exceptional for gold—prices jumped 60%, marking the steepest annual climb since 1979. Central banks kept buying, geopolitical worries lingered, and the Fed’s pivot toward rate cuts provided tailwinds. For 2026, consensus is cautiously optimistic.

The World Gold Council suggests prices could advance another 5%–15% if current conditions persist. In a more extreme scenario involving recession and aggressive Fed stimulus, gold could potentially surge 15%–30%. Investment banks are aligned on the upside: Goldman Sachs eyes $4,900/oz by year-end, while Bank of America is even more constructive at $5,000/oz, citing ballooning U.S. fiscal deficits and debt burdens as persistent support factors.

Silver’s Structural Advantage

Silver had an outsized 2025, posting gains that dwarfed gold’s performance. The driver? Supply constraints. The Silver Institute flags a persistent structural supply deficit—industrial demand remains robust, investment buying is recovering, and production growth is slowing. This imbalance is expected to widen further in 2026.

UBS has boosted its 2026 silver forecast to $58–60/oz with potential to reach $65/oz in certain scenarios. Bank of America agrees, also projecting $65/oz, signaling broad agreement on the metal’s trajectory.

Digital Assets: Bitcoin and Ethereum at an Inflection Point

Bitcoin: Cycle Debate Rages On

Bitcoin finished 2025 flat after a dramatic bull run, sitting near $94.37K in early 2026. The big question: Is the legendary four-year cycle alive or dead?

Standard Chartered recently lowered its Bitcoin target from $200,000 to $150,000, reasoning that government crypto treasury purchases may fade while ETF flows remain a prop. Bernstein also expects $150,000 by end-2026, with $200,000 by 2027, arguing Bitcoin has transcended its historical cycle and entered an elongated bull phase.

Morgan Stanley takes the opposing view, insisting the four-year cycle persists and the rally is approaching exhaustion. This divergence among major institutions reflects genuine uncertainty about macro dynamics and regulatory trajectories.

Ethereum: The Tokenization Play

Ethereum mirrored Bitcoin’s choppiness in 2025, ending flat but trading above $3.30K in January 2026. Yet institutions are generally upbeat about its 2026 prospects.

JPMorgan highlights massive potential in asset tokenization, which leans heavily on Ethereum’s infrastructure. BitMain Chairman Tom Lee goes further, forecasting ETH at $20,000 by 2026, contending that Ethereum bottomed in 2025 and will stage a dramatic rally as the tokenization wave reshapes the coming crypto supercycle.

Equities: Nasdaq 100 Sets Its Sights on 27,000?

The Nasdaq 100 powered ahead 22% in 2025, outpacing the S&P 500’s 18% gain. For 2026, the consensus is constructive—AI-driven capex is seen as the bedrock.

JPMorgan highlights that hyperscale data centre operators (Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta) will sustain elevated spending, potentially reaching hundreds of billions cumulatively by mid-2026. This should buoy stocks like NVIDIA, AMD, and Broadcom.

On the S&P 500 front, JPMorgan charts upside to 7,500, while Deutsche Bank is even more bullish, penciling 8,000 by year-end in constructive scenarios. Extrapolating these targets, the Nasdaq 100 could breach 27,000 according to various analyst models.

Currency Markets: Divergence Across USD Pairs

EUR/USD: The Dollar’s Retreat Continues?

EUR/USD surged 13% in 2025—its best year in nearly eight years—as the dollar weakened. For 2026, monetary policy divergence is key: the Fed is cutting, the ECB is holding steady.

JPMorgan and Nomura forecast EUR/USD reaching 1.20 by year-end, while Bank of America is more aggressive at 1.22. Morgan Stanley, however, warns of a potential reversal in H2 2026 if U.S. economic data strengthens, projecting an initial move to 1.23 followed by a retreat to 1.16.

USD/JPY: A Complicated Picture

USD/JPY declined early in 2025 before rebounding, finishing flat. Looking ahead to 2026, the outlook is bifurcated.

JPMorgan remains bullish, arguing that BOJ rate hike expectations are already priced in and Japanese fiscal expansion will weigh on the yen, targeting 164 by year-end. Converting this, 7500 JPY to USD would represent meaningful yen weakness. Nomura counters that narrowing rate differentials will erode carry trade appeal; if U.S. data stumbles, unwinding could trigger yen strength, potentially pushing USD/JPY to 140 before 2026 closes.

Energy: Oil Faces Downside Pressure

Crude oil collapsed nearly 20% in 2025 as OPEC+ boosted output and U.S. production climbed. Institutions see downside risks skewed toward oversupply in 2026 if production stays elevated and demand growth cools.

Goldman Sachs sketches a bearish case with WTI averaging ~$52/barrel and Brent ~$56/barrel. JPMorgan similarly highlights downside, with WTI near $54/barrel and Brent around $58/barrel if supply surpluses persist. Neither firm expects a sharp rebound absent a major supply shock.

The Bottom Line: A Year of Cautious Optimism with Caveats

2026 looks poised to deliver gains across precious metals, select digital assets, and equities—but execution risk abounds. Macro surprises, geopolitical flare-ups, and policy pivots could quickly derail consensus calls. Stay nimble and monitor key data releases closely.