2026 Market Playbook: Where Street Strategists See Gold, Bitcoin, and the Altseason Index Heading

The Bullish Case: Why Traditional Finance and Crypto Are Both Pointing North

After a tumultuous 2025, Wall Street and crypto strategists are painting surprisingly optimistic scenarios for 2026. Yet beneath the consensus optimism lies a fascinating divergence—not everyone agrees on which assets will shine. Let’s walk through what leading institutions are actually forecasting.

Equities: The Magnificent Seven Keep the Nasdaq Climbing

The U.S. equity story remains straightforward: artificial intelligence is still throwing money around. In 2025, the Nasdaq 100 delivered a 22% return, outpacing the S&P 500’s 18% gain for the third consecutive year. This momentum appears far from exhausted.

JPMorgan research indicates that hyperscale data centre operators—Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta—will sustain elevated capital expenditure cycles, with cumulative spending potentially reaching hundreds of billions by 2026. This translates into sustained demand for chipmakers like NVIDIA, AMD, and Broadcom.

The projection consensus? S&P 500 could approach 7,500 (JPMorgan’s base case) or even 8,000 (Deutsche Bank’s optimistic scenario) by year-end 2026. Scale that to the Nasdaq 100, and you’re looking at a potential breach above 27,000 points.

Precious Metals: Gold and Silver, the Unlikely Winners

Gold staged a historic 2025—up 60%, the biggest annual jump since 1979—riding on Fed rate cuts, central bank accumulation, and geopolitical anxiety. The World Gold Council is hardly pressing the brakes.

Most major investment banks expect gold to climb another 5–15% in 2026, with upside scenarios reaching 15–30% if the Fed slashes rates aggressively and economic growth stalls. Goldman Sachs targets USD 4,900/oz by year-end, while Bank of America is even more bullish at USD 5,000/oz, citing persistent U.S. fiscal deficits and rising debt levels.

Silver is the story with wider upside. The Silver Institute warns of a structural supply deficit—industrial demand is surging while mining output lags. UBS lifted its 2026 target to USD 58–60/oz, with potential to spike to USD 65/oz. Bank of America echoes the bullishness, also forecasting USD 65/oz.

Forex: Dollar Weakness Continues, But with Caveats

EUR/USD is the poster child for diverging monetary policy. In 2025, the pair climbed 13%—its largest annual gain in nearly eight years—as the Fed cut rates while the ECB held steady. Institutions anticipate further upside in 2026.

JPMorgan and Nomura forecast EUR/USD reaching 1.20 by year-end, while Bank of America is more aggressive at 1.22. However, Morgan Stanley injects a cautionary note: if U.S. economic data remains resilient, the dollar could stage a mid-year rebound. Morgan Stanley sees EUR/USD rallying to 1.23 first, then retreating to 1.16 in the second half of 2026.

USD/JPY presents a more fractious outlook. JPMorgan expects the pair to climb toward 164 as BOJ rate hikes get priced in and Japanese fiscal expansion weighs on the yen. Nomura disagrees sharply: narrowing interest rate differentials will erode the appeal of yen carry trades. If U.S. data falters, unwinding could push USD/JPY down to 140.

Crude Oil: The Bearish Outlier

Oil markets present a different narrative. WTI prices fell nearly 20% in 2025 as OPEC+ ramped production and U.S. output surged. Most strategists see downside risk ahead.

Goldman Sachs outlines a scenario where WTI averages around USD 52/barrel and Brent USD 56/barrel in 2026, reflecting persistent oversupply. JPMorgan paints a similar picture, with WTI averaging near USD 54/barrel and Brent USD 58/barrel.

The Crypto Split: Bitcoin Trapped in Theory, Ethereum Riding the Tokenization Wave

Bitcoin: A Cyclical Question Mark

Bitcoin ended 2025 nearly flat despite touching all-time highs, leaving strategists divided on the path ahead. Standard Chartered downgraded its Bitcoin target from USD 200,000 to USD 150,000, expecting Digital Asset Treasury purchases to wind down (though ETF flows should remain robust). Bernstein independently projects USD 150,000 for 2026, but adds a bullish kicker—Bitcoin has allegedly broken its four-year cycle and is entering an extended bull phase, with potential to reach USD 200,000 by 2027.

Morgan Stanley begs to differ. The firm argues the four-year cycle persists and the bull market is approaching exhaustion. Current price action at USD 94.19K (as of early January 2026, up 1.15% in 24 hours) suggests the debate is far from settled.

Ethereum: The Tokenization Play

Ethereum experienced greater volatility than Bitcoin in 2025, also closing the year near flat. Yet institution sentiment leans bullish heading into 2026.

JPMorgan highlights the transformative potential of tokenization, which will likely run on Ethereum’s blockchain infrastructure. Tom Lee, Chairman of Bitmain, goes further: tokenization will catalyze the next major crypto supercycle. He forecasts Ethereum hitting USD 20,000 in 2026, arguing that ETH bottomed in 2025 and is primed for a significant rally.

Current Ethereum price of USD 3.30K (up 4.23% in 24 hours) is a far cry from USD 20,000, yet the conviction behind the tokenization thesis appears genuine among major institutions.

The Altseason Index: A Broader Shift?

As Bitcoin consolidates and Ethereum captures institutional attention through tokenization narratives, watch the broader altseason index for clues. When alternative cryptocurrencies begin outperforming Bitcoin on a risk-adjusted basis, it often signals a deepening cycle expansion—precisely what Bernstein and others are anticipating for 2026.

The Bottom Line: A Tale of Two Markets

2026 is shaping up as a year where traditional finance (equities, gold, forex) and digital assets (Bitcoin, Ethereum, the broader altseason cycle) move in tandem, all supported by Fed easing and geopolitical uncertainty. The outliers—crude oil and certain currency pairs—remind us that consensus can break down when supply and demand dynamics diverge from macro expectations.

Investors positioned for moderate growth should find opportunities across all these markets. Traders expecting volatility will find it in Bitcoin, USD/JPY, and crude oil. Those seeking fundamental tailwinds should lean into gold, silver, and the tokenization thesis driving Ethereum higher.