AAVE continues to be bearish, with whale sell-off volume and technical bearish signals appearing simultaneously

• AAVE has shown signs of recovery after dropping over 12% last week, but it has yet to gain additional strength near $173 .
• According to on-chain data from Lookonchain, active sell-offs by large whale holders continue, maintaining significant selling pressure in the market.
• Technical indicators remain bearish, suggesting the possibility of further adjustments in the short term.

The current situation of AAVE presents mixed signals. After a sharp decline last week, it has experienced some rebound, but has not yet secured clear upward momentum. Analyzing on-chain metrics indicates that profit-taking activities by large holders are intensifying, which acts as a factor suppressing price rally.

Whale Capital Outflows, Accelerating Profit-Taking Wave

According to tracking data from Lookonchain, at the beginning of the month, a whale wallet released 230,350 AAVE into the market, which is estimated to be a sell order totaling approximately $37.8 million executed all at once. Such large-scale selling exerts strong psychological pressure on market participants.

Even more noteworthy is the trend of the network realized profit/loss index provided by Santiment. This indicator reflects the average profitability of holders and has recently reached its highest level since late November. In other words, the current average profit of AAVE holders is quite substantial, which explains the psychological background for the large volume of sell-offs.

Technical Analysis: Confirming Bearish Signals, Support Convergence

From chart technical analysis, AAVE faced clear resistance at the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) of $193.61 on December 10, and subsequently experienced a significant decline. The RSI index remains at 36, below the neutral level of 50, confirming that bearish momentum still dominates.

The MACD indicator also continues to signal negativity. After a temporary bullish signal last week, it has turned downward again, indicating that short-term bearishness may persist.

If AAVE closes below the daily support level of $160.51, it could form a technical structure that allows further decline toward the November 21 low of $147.13. Conversely, in an upward reactivation scenario, the first resistance to overcome would be the daily resistance at $179.27.

Market Outlook and Future Scenarios

Currently, AAVE’s indicators suggest it is at a crossroads between upward and downward movements. Technically, bearish signals are dominant, and the supply-demand dynamics show that whale sell-offs are ongoing in stages. However, the partial rebound early this week indicates that some buying interest still exists.

The number of holder addresses remains at 198,219. Considering the psychological resistance and technical support at the current price level, a sideways fluctuation within a range is likely in the short term. Nevertheless, if the whale sell-off trend continues, additional downward pressure toward the expected levels indicated by the metrics remains possible.