Which Retailers Could Deliver Strong Returns This Holiday Season? A Stock Analysis

The Holiday Shopping Surge Is Creating Market Opportunities

Black Friday (November 28) represents far more than just a shopping event—it’s an economic indicator that often signals market sentiment heading into year-end. This year’s retail landscape is particularly interesting for stock investors. The National Retail Federation forecasts the 2025 holiday shopping season could break the $1 trillion ceiling for the first time ever, representing growth of 3.7-4.2% year-over-year. Historical patterns show that retail sector stocks consistently outpace the broader S&P 500 index during the weeks surrounding this shopping extravaganza.

Amazon Faces an Interesting Valuation Moment

Despite its dominance in online commerce, Amazon’s stock narrative this year has been surprisingly subdued. Trading up just 1% year-to-date in 2025, the company has significantly lagged the S&P 500 and its Magnificent Seven peers—a stark contrast to its market leadership position. The e-commerce powerhouse is running extended promotional campaigns from November 20 through December 1, creating a two-week shopping window across all product categories. For the upcoming Q4, management has guided revenue toward the $206-213 billion range, implying 10-13% annual growth. Electronics, toys, and beauty merchandise traditionally drive the heaviest transaction volumes during this period. Interestingly, this relative underperformance could represent a compelling contrarian opportunity for investors evaluating amazon stock price prediction 2026 scenarios. The company’s expansion into advertising and cloud infrastructure has somewhat overshadowed its core retail business, yet that retail engine remains formidable.

Walmart Is Already Pricing in Holiday Success

The retail titan has positioned itself effectively with a three-phase promotional calendar spanning November 14 through December 1. Walmart’s omnichannel ecosystem and everyday competitive pricing have historically translated into outsized performance during peak shopping seasons. The stock reflects this strength—up 13% year-to-date, it’s tracking closely with the S&P 500 while outpacing Amazon. Institutional analysts see meaningful runway ahead: TipRanks consensus data points to an average price target of $116, suggesting approximately 15% additional upside potential from current trading levels. This modest but steady momentum suggests the market already has reasonable expectations baked into current valuation.

Shopify’s Strong Run Could Continue

The second-ranked e-commerce platform in the U.S. market has captured investor attention with a remarkable 36% year-to-date climb. Last year’s Black Friday and Cyber Monday period demonstrated the strength underneath this rally—Shopify-powered merchant stores collectively generated $11.5 billion in gross sales, a 24% surge versus the prior year and marking a fresh record. The consensus view among analysts suggests Shopify will see its merchandise volume accelerate again during this year’s Black Friday window, with institutional price targets averaging $179 according to TipRanks data. This implies more than 22% upside potential, though the stock’s strong recent momentum means valuation is worth monitoring carefully.

The Bottom Line

Retail volatility around Black Friday creates differentiated investment scenarios. Amazon’s relative underperformance combined with solid fundamentals presents a potential rebalancing opportunity, while Walmart offers steady outperformance and modest growth potential. Shopify’s momentum is compelling but already significantly reflected in its valuation. Each represents a distinct risk-reward profile for the holiday season ahead.