Precious Metals Rally: Gold Price Climbs Toward $4,110 as Market Awaits Critical US September Jobs Data

Gold trading is heating up this Thursday morning, with XAU/USD pushing toward the $4,110 mark as investors digest a complex mix of economic signals. The delayed September Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report—held up by a recent 43-day government shutdown—is now front and center in traders’ minds. This delayed labor data has created significant uncertainty around US economic health, which traditionally supports safe-haven demand for precious metals like gold.

The NFP Report and Its Market Impact

The delayed September jobs report represents a critical test for understanding the trajectory of the US labor market. A disappointing NFP reading could strengthen the case for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, which would prove supportive for gold price dynamics. Weaker employment figures would likely reduce borrowing costs, making non-yielding assets like gold more attractive by comparison—since lower yields mean reduced opportunity costs for holding the precious metal.

Conversely, stronger-than-expected payrolls could dampen expectations for further monetary easing, potentially weighing on XAU/USD and other gold holdings.

Fed Officials Send Mixed Signals on Rate Path

Recent minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) October 28-29 meeting reveal internal disagreement among policymakers. While the Fed executed a 25 basis point rate cut as expected, the decision was split—some members argued against cutting again in December. This division signals caution within the central bank about aggressive easing.

Market pricing tells the story: odds of a December rate cut have collapsed to roughly 30%, according to CME FedWatch data, down sharply from 60% just one week prior. This dramatic repricing underscores how fragile consensus is around the Fed’s next move and keeps gold price sensitive to any fresh economic data or policy commentary.

What’s Next for Gold Investors

The gold market remains poised between two competing narratives: economic weakness that supports safe-haven flows versus moderating rate-cut expectations that could limit upside. Thursday’s jobs report will likely tip the scales in one direction or another, making it a pivotal moment for precious metals traders watching XAU/USD levels.