AVAX Shows Teeth at $14.48, But Traders Are Playing It Cool—Here's Why

2026-01-06 16:35:03

Avalanche just pulled off an impressive 8% spike and is now holding steady above the $14.00 psychological level. On paper, it looks like the bulls are back. The token broke through a key resistance trendline that had been capping it for weeks, and we’re seeing consecutive green candles—exactly the kind of move that usually gets traders excited.

But here’s the thing: the derivatives market is telling a completely different story.

The Leverage Graveyard

While spot prices are climbing, futures open interest is sitting at just $592.81 million—barely budging from the previous day’s $562.17 million. That’s a red flag. If this rally was for real, you’d expect leveraged traders to be piling in, right? Instead, they’re ghosting.

This disconnect makes sense once you look back at October 10, when the market got absolutely demolished. AVAX futures open interest went from $1.45 billion straight down to $645.54 million. That’s not a dip—that’s a purge. All that speculative leverage got wiped out, and the market still hasn’t recovered. Most traders are sitting on their hands, waiting to see if this breakout actually sticks before they risk more capital.

The message is clear: yes, there are buyers stepping in at current levels, but the retail crowd isn’t chasing this rally yet. Everyone’s skeptical, and honestly, they have reason to be.

The Technical Case for $17.14

Now let’s talk about what could actually happen if the bulls keep pushing. The chart is starting to look interesting.

By taking out that descending trendline, AVAX removed what was basically a death grip from the bears. The immediate target is the Friday high of $14.77. If the token can clear that without getting rejected, the next major milestone is the 50-day EMA sitting near $17.14. Institutional traders watch that level like hawks—if AVAX can reclaim it, it signals a genuine shift from correction to accumulation.

The technical indicators are starting to align with this view:

RSI is at 46 and climbing steadily out of oversold territory. More importantly, it formed a bullish divergence against the November 21 low of $12.57, which historically precedes real reversals.
Supertrend is on the edge. A break above $15.89 would flip the indicator to buy, adding fuel to the momentum narrative.

So there is a road map here. AVAX could make a real move if it stays above $14.77 and keeps pushing.

The Catch

Before you get too excited, remember: this breakout isn’t guaranteed. If AVAX gets rejected at that $14.77 pivot, the whole rally falls apart. Prices could easily roll back down to $12.57 support, and we’re back to square one with the bulls defending the range.

Right now, the market is stuck between $14.77 and $15.89. That band is the decision zone. Breaking above it is basically the entry ticket to a real trend reversal. Below it? You’re still in no-man’s-land.

The real question isn’t whether AVAX can go up—it’s whether traders are willing to put real money behind it once it does.

AVAX0,21%

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.