AUD/USD Holds Below Key Resistance as Greenback Gains on Government Shutdown Resolution

The Australian Dollar (AUD) finds itself on the back foot against the US Dollar (USD) as market focus shifts to the impending conclusion of the US government shutdown. For traders wondering what 100 Australian dollars converts to in USD terms, the current weakness suggests unfavorable exchange rates compared to recent months.

Technical Setup: AUD/USD Faces Critical Support Level

The AUD/USD pair is presently consolidating near 0.6520, trading within a rectangular formation that has defined recent price action. The pair sits precariously close to the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently positioned at 0.6520, which marks a crucial inflection point for short-term traders.

Should the pair decisively breach this nine-day EMA support, the psychological barrier at 0.6500 would come into focus next. Breaking through this level could accelerate selling pressure, potentially driving the pair toward the lower rectangle boundary around 0.6470 and the five-month low of 0.6414 established in late August.

Conversely, if buyers step in, the 50-day EMA at 0.6536 represents the immediate upside target. Clearing this resistance would signal a shift in medium-term momentum, potentially unleashing moves toward the rectangle’s upper boundary near 0.6630 and eventually the 13-month peak of 0.6707 from mid-September.

USD Strength Builds on Shutdown Resolution

The US Dollar Index (DXY), tracking the Greenback against six major currencies, has halted a five-day losing streak and currently hovers around 99.50. This recovery coincides with tangible progress on ending the government shutdown, with the US Senate already passing the necessary legislation. The House is expected to approve the bill on Wednesday, clearing the path for President Trump’s signature and an imminent government reopening.

This fiscal resolution matters because a restarted government will trigger a flood of economic data releases and restore government worker paychecks, factors that typically support the USD. Adding to Dollar strength, recent macro comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested the shutdown’s economic damage is intensifying, while markets increasingly price in an 68% probability of a December rate cut, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

RBA Holds Firm on Tight Policy Despite Economic Headwinds

While the USD benefits from external factors, the Australian Dollar draws mixed support from domestic monetary policy signals. RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser recently underscored the central bank’s commitment to maintaining restrictive conditions, acknowledging that Australia’s policy environment faces unusual challenges. The economy began recovering with demand already exceeding potential output, leaving limited room for near-term policy relief.

However, a significant shift emerged with Westpac Consumer Confidence surging 12.8% in November to reach 103.8—marking the first time this measure has surpassed 100 since February 2022. This seven-year high in consumer sentiment, excluding pandemic-era readings, suggests improving economic conditions may eventually support the AUD. RBA Assistant Governor Brad Jones added nuance to the outlook, warning that markets may be underestimating geopolitical risks while noting early signs of fragmentation in central bank gold reserves.

Global Factors Complicate the Picture

China’s recent announcement to temporarily suspend its ban on exporting “dual-use items” including gallium and germanium to the US—effective through November 27, 2026—signals shifting geopolitical dynamics. Since China represents Australia’s largest trading partner, any meaningful shifts in Sino-US relations indirectly influence Australian asset valuations.

On the data front, China’s October Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% year-over-year, beating the zero-growth consensus, while the Producer Price Index declined 2.1% annually, coming in better than the expected -2.2% fall. These figures suggest fragile Chinese demand, which has broader implications for commodity-exporting nations like Australia.

What’s Next for AUD/USD Traders

The currency pair remains at an inflection point where technical support and macroeconomic headwinds collide. Federal Reserve speakers including Christopher Waller and Raphael Bostic are slated to comment later today, potentially providing fresh USD direction. Meanwhile, the successful passage of the shutdown-ending legislation removes a key uncertainty that has weighed on risk appetite and supported safe-haven flows into the US Dollar.

For investors tracking the conversion of 100 Australian dollars to USD, current levels represent a period of consolidation before the pair likely chooses a directional bias. The interplay between a determined RBA defending policy tightness and a resurgent Greenback underpinned by government reopening momentum will likely determine whether the AUD reclaims its footing or extends its recent losses.