December Market Overview: Technical Analysis of Four Major Trading Assets, AUD Exchange Rate Worth Watching

The major markets are closed during the Christmas holiday period, but trading opportunities still exist. The current market focus is on the Federal Reserve’s policy direction—after three rate cuts this year, the market is observing changes in employment and inflation data. Bank of America expects the Fed to implement two more rate cuts in the first half of next year, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield possibly returning to the 4%-4.25% range by year-end. Expectations of rate cuts generally lead to risk asset rallies, providing support for both stocks and forex markets.

NZD/USD: Gann Line Becomes Key Support

The New Zealand dollar rose 0.05% this week, reaching a high of 0.5841, but upward momentum shows signs of weakening. On the technical side, the Gann 2/1 line at 0.5770 serves as an important defense line.

Short-term Outlook: If the rebound is blocked at 0.5850, the NZD may retreat to 0.5770 for support. As long as this level holds, the medium-term upward trend could continue, with targets at 0.5900 and even 0.6000.

Technical Levels:

• Support: 0.5800, 0.5770, 0.5730
• Resistance: 0.5850, 0.5900, 0.6000

EUR/USD: 1.1700 Is the Bull-Bear Divide

The euro slightly increased by 0.04% this week, reaching 1.1793, but remains under pressure below 1.1800. In the short term, 1.1700 is a critical level for determining direction.

Key Judgment: If the euro stays above 1.1700, it may challenge 1.1900 and even 1.2000. Conversely, a break below this level could lead to further retracement toward 1.1630.

Technical Levels:

• Support: 1.1700, 1.1630, 1.1500
• Resistance: 1.1800, 1.1900, 1.2000

AUD/USD: Australian Dollar Faces Consolidation

The AUD has increased by 0.02% recently, oscillating around 0.6700. Although the medium-term uptrend remains intact, there are signs of short-term consolidation. Australia’s economy and the AUD’s performance are closely linked, and as a major commodity exporter, the AUD’s relative performance against the RMB also reflects China-Australia trade dynamics.

Short-term Risks: If the AUD falls below 0.6700, the next support is at 0.6620. As long as this level holds, the medium-term bullish trend remains, with targets at 0.6750-0.6800.

Technical Levels:

• Support: 0.6700, 0.6620, 0.6520
• Resistance: 0.6750, 0.6800, 0.6900

WTI Crude Oil: Rebound Correction Signals Emerge

Crude oil rose 0.09% on Friday to $58.6, with the AO momentum indicator showing increasing upward strength, suggesting a potential rebound correction since the decline from June.

Further Analysis: If crude breaks above $59.0 and stabilizes, it may challenge $61.5 and even $64.5. However, a drop below $57.0 warrants caution for continued decline.

Technical Levels:

• Support: 57.0, 55.0, 52.0
• Resistance: 59.0, 61.5, 64.5

Overall, supported by rate cut expectations, risk assets face upward opportunities. The AUD, as a barometer of the Australian economy, and the RMB’s relative performance are worth monitoring, reflecting China-Australia trade prospects. Although short-term adjustments are possible across various trading instruments, the overall technical structure remains positive.