Bitcoin Rally Faces Headwinds: Technical Signals Mixed as ETF Support Remains Tepid

Bitcoin’s attempts to extend its recovery above $91,500 have run into resistance, with the world’s largest cryptocurrency now trading around $92.64K while showing modest daily weakness of -0.68%. While US spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to see modest capital inflows, underlying market fundamentals suggest caution is warranted for traders eyeing sustained upside.

ETF Flows Offer Mixed Signals on Institutional Appetite

The institutional landscape for Bitcoin presents a nuanced picture. Wednesday’s session saw US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs attract $21.12 million in fresh capital, marking the second consecutive day of positive fund movement. This represents a notable shift from the persistent outflow pressures witnessed the previous week, when $128.64 million departed the previous day before that inflow week.

However, the scale of these inflows pales in comparison to the sustained selling that preceded them. For sustained recovery momentum, market participants should monitor whether these capital injections gain traction or remain confined to current modest levels. The ETF landscape—encompassing products denominated in various currencies including those tracking Canadian dollar valuations—continues to serve as a barometer for institutional conviction.

On-Chain Metrics Paint Concerning Picture of Market Health

Beneath the surface recovery, blockchain analysis reveals troubling signals. According to recent Glassnode analysis, Bitcoin remains trapped in a structurally compromised state, hovering within the $81,000–$89,000 band after capitulating through critical support thresholds. This price action mirrors the technical breakdown observed during Q1 2022’s post-peak correction cycle, where diminishing demand eventually overwhelmed the market.

The current environment exhibits identical characteristics: prices drifting lower amid constrained liquidity and limited capital absorption. The research highlights that weak market structure makes liquidity the critical variable determining directional movement. When liquidity evaporates—as it has now—even modest selling pressure can trigger cascading declines.

The Short-Term Holder Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has deteriorated sharply, collapsing to just 0.07 following a brief period above its 4.3x neutral threshold in early October. Such extreme loss concentration indicates that retail and recent entrants are overwhelmingly underwater, signaling evaporated demand precisely when the market needed fresh buying interest following Q2–Q3 2025’s aggressive long-term holder accumulation phase.

Should this ratio remain depressed, Bitcoin risks replicating Q1 2022’s weakness trajectory, potentially breaking through the True Market Mean support level at $81,000.

Technical Indicators Suggest Consolidation Ahead

From a charting perspective, mixed signals emerge. Bitcoin’s daily Relative Strength Index sits at 41, positioned between the oversold (<30) and neutral (50) thresholds, suggesting momentum remains fading. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence triggered a bullish crossover Thursday, generating a classic buy signal that lends some credibility to near-term recovery attempts.

Should this recovery extend, price could venture toward the psychologically significant $100,000 level. Conversely, failure to sustain momentum could see Bitcoin retreating to defend the $85,000 support band.

The Path Forward: Conviction Remains Low

Until Bitcoin reclaims key cost-basis thresholds and genuine capital influx returns, the market is likely to oscillate within low-conviction consolidation ranges. The combination of fragile on-chain conditions, modest ETF flows, and mixed technical signals suggests traders should maintain disciplined risk management rather than aggressively chasing recovery scenarios.