BTC Rebounds Above $91,500 as Institutional ETF Inflows Signal Market Shift

Bitcoin continues to hold ground above the $91,500 mark following a meaningful recovery from key support zones. The latest on-chain metrics and institutional flows reveal a market in transition, though traders remain cautious about underlying fragility.

Institutional Capital Returns: A Positive Signal for Bitcoin

The tide may be turning for Bitcoin on the institutional side. US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $21.12 million flow in on Wednesday alone, marking the second consecutive day of positive capital injection after weeks of outflow pressure. While this represents a modest uptick compared to the previous day’s $128.64 million inflow, it nonetheless signals weakening selling pressure from large players.

This institutional appetite comes as BTC stabilized around $80,000 support last week and began its recovery rally. For the uptrend to sustain momentum, these positive flows would need to intensify beyond current levels. The historical pattern suggests that sustainable rallies require consistent institutional backing, not just one-off inflows.

What On-Chain Data Reveals About Bitcoin’s Current State

Recent blockchain intelligence from Glassnode paints a more cautious picture. Bitcoin’s market structure remains structurally weak, oscillating within the $81,000–$89,000 range after key support erosion. The comparison to Q1 2022 market conditions is particularly revealing—both periods show similar dynamics of declining demand absorption and liquidity drainage.

The Short-Term Holder Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has become the key metric to watch. This indicator measures the balance between profits and losses among recent coin movers. Currently collapsed to 0.07 (well below the neutral threshold of 4.3), it indicates overwhelming loss sentiment dominance. This extreme reading confirms that retail and near-term traders have largely given up, creating a liquidity vacuum that increases downside risks.

The analyst’s conclusion is stark: “Until price reclaims cost-basis resistance and new buyers arrive, consolidation at low conviction is the most likely outcome.” A breakdown below $81,000 would mirror the weakness pattern from early 2022, potentially triggering a broader market contraction.

Technical Setup: What the Charts Tell Us

Bitcoin’s daily chart offers mixed signals for short-term direction:

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 41, tilting upward toward neutral territory at 50. This suggests bearish momentum is fading but hasn’t fully reversed into bullish territory yet. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) generated a bullish crossover on Thursday, which classically signals potential continuation of the recovery move.

Price-wise, if BTC maintains above $91,500 and extends higher, the psychological barrier at $100,000 becomes the logical target. Breaking above this level would indicate genuine institutional commitment to a larger uptrend.

Conversely, if weakness resumes, the $85,000 support zone represents the next critical defense line. A failure to hold this level would validate Glassnode’s bearish structural thesis and likely accelerate selling.

Converting BTC Performance to Alternative Baselines

For international investors and those tracking BTC to AUD (Australian Dollar) valuations, the current price represents a significant swing from recent lows. The recovery from $80,000 to $91,500 translates into multi-thousand Australian Dollar movements for each Bitcoin unit, making the technical setup equally relevant for non-USD traders.

The Bottom Line: Recovery Possible But Not Assured

Bitcoin’s rebound above $91,500 suggests institutional interest hasn’t completely evaporated. However, on-chain metrics reveal that retail demand remains severely depressed, creating an uncertain foundation for extended rallies. The path forward depends critically on whether ETF inflows can intensify and whether the market can attract fresh buyer participation.

Traders should monitor three key developments: (1) whether Wednesday’s inflow momentum persists into the week, (2) if the STH Ratio shows signs of stabilization above 0.10, and (3) whether RSI can sustainably cross above the 50 midpoint. Until these confirmations appear, BTC remains a consolidation play rather than a conviction-driven breakout opportunity.