Ripple(XRP), Derivatives 'Breathing Room' Opening... Technical Momentum Still Shows 'Signal Mismatch'

The market is shaking over XRP’s next move amid a phase where the direction of price and trading volume diverges. Open interest( has surged from $3.36 billion to $4.11 billion, and trading volume has also skyrocketed to $10.58 billion, indicating a noticeably increased betting intensity among short-term traders. However, the price still remains below the 50-day, 200-day, and 100-day moving averages, and the RSI has weakened to around 48.

‘Capital Revival’ Signal in the Derivatives Market

What’s worth noting is that, unlike the weakness in the spot market, the futures market is becoming more active.

Last Monday, open interest (OI) was at $3.36 billion, but by Tuesday, it jumped to $4.11 billion, with about $750 million in new positions entering. This is interpreted not just as a simple shift in positions but as a sign that new leverage funds are flowing in. Especially in the altcoin market, which is mainly driven by retail investors, an increase in OI means higher participation of short-term profit hunters.

Trading volume is following the same trend. The increase to $10.58 billion is seen as evidence of new capital entering, beyond just long-short battles among existing positions. However, the contradictory point here is that these bullish signals are not translating into an increase in spot prices.

Technical Signals Still ‘Mixed’

Currently, XRP is trading around $2.45, which is a correction from last week’s high of $2.57. The bigger issue is that the price remains trapped below key moving averages.

Moving Average Structure:

• 50-day EMA: $2.56
• 200-day EMA: $2.58
• 100-day EMA: $2.64

All three key moving averages are positioned above the current price. Structurally, this indicates that a “full-fledged bull market” is unlikely.

Momentum indicators are also weak. RSI has fallen from 52 on Monday to 48 now, showing a neutral zone but signaling a waning of recent upward energy. Meanwhile, MACD still maintains a buy signal, leading some traders to see this as an opportunity for a correction.

Support Levels as a Variable

Two levels are of particular interest among traders.

The $2.24 level tested last Sunday and the $2.07 level confirmed on November 4th are zones where actual buying support was observed during the recent correction. Holding these levels is crucial for the viability of a short-term bullish scenario.

Conversely, $3.00 is a psychological resistance level, and if the current mixed signals align in the same direction, this zone will inevitably attract attention.

Waiting for Signal Confirmation

The main point is simple. While the derivatives market shows signs of renewed capital inflow, the spot chart has yet to turn around.

For a true “trend reversal,” increases in OI and trading volume need to continue simultaneously. If both start to decline, the current mini-rally could just be a temporary short-covering.

At this stage, it’s important to watch whether the price stabilizes above the moving averages at $2.56 and $2.58, and whether the bullish sentiment in derivatives persists. Only when these two signals point in the same direction does a renewed attempt at $3.00 become convincing. Currently, the derivatives and spot markets are still in a transitional, unstable phase where consensus has not yet been reached.