Comprehensive analysis of gold performance and gold chains on November 11 | Price forecasts and technical trends

Gold Maintains Upward Trend as Critical Levels Approach

The gold market is experiencing a rapid upward wave during today’s trading, with prices moving close to the $4,137 per ounce level, making a notable move toward its highest levels in three weeks. This rally is attributed to increasing expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve may cut interest rates during the December meeting, along with weak U.S. economic data that has boosted safe-haven demand.

Recent economic developments provide strong support for the yellow metal, especially as labor market indicators show a clear decline, and consumer sentiment has dropped sharply. Additionally, the resolution of the political crisis in the United States has positively reflected on trader confidence, although the real impact on gold remains linked to the weak economic path that supports defensive buying.

Buying Opportunities Increase as Interest Rates Fall

Following the release of weak employment and consumption data, investors reassessed their expectations for U.S. monetary policy. The CME FedWatch tool indicates that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is about 64%, while some Federal Reserve policymakers see the possibility of a deeper cut of up to 50 basis points.

This scenario creates an ideal environment for gold’s attractiveness, as monetary easing weakens the U.S. dollar and reduces real yields on fixed-income investments. This translates into increased demand for gold as an effective hedge against erosion of purchasing power and economic uncertainties. Additionally, demand for gold chains and other gold products is growing in parallel with the metal’s price increase, as individuals and institutions seek to hold a larger tangible share of wealth.

End of Government Shutdown Reduces Political Uncertainty

The U.S. Senate recently reached a funding agreement that ended the longest government shutdown in American history, easing the political uncertainty that had burdened markets. This development restores investors’ ability to analyze economic fundamentals away from political noise.

However, this measure has not changed the core economic situation, as the real issues lie in weak employment data and declining consumer confidence, factors that continue to support gold as a safe investment. Moreover, the resumption of official data releases carries the potential for negative economic surprises that could reinforce expectations of further rate cuts.

Weak Economic Data Boosts Safe-Haven Appeal

Latest statistics indicate that the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index registered 50.3 points in November 2025, the lowest in over three and a half years. Meanwhile, employment data from the private employment institute showed a limited increase of only 42,000 jobs in October, a figure that does not reflect the full picture of the market.

These declining indicators have prompted investors to increase their bets on upcoming monetary easing, boosting demand for gold and other defensive assets. In an environment of economic uncertainty, gold emerges as an attractive investment option to protect capital, especially since it is less affected by interest rate fluctuations compared to traditional securities.

JPMorgan Estimates: Gold Could Exceed $5,000 in 2026

JPMorgan issued bold forecasts in its recent reports, predicting that gold prices could surpass $5,000 per ounce in the coming year. This estimate is based on several structural factors, including the ongoing increase in central bank purchases, especially from emerging countries seeking to diversify their reserves away from the dollar.

Global geopolitical shifts are prompting many countries to reshape their investment strategies, relying more on precious metals as a tool for financial independence. As easing policies continue in major economies, gold’s appeal increases relative to fixed-yield assets. The gold chain market also sees renewed interest from consumers seeking tangible ways to preserve their wealth amid economic uncertainty.

Technical Analysis: Critical Support and Resistance Levels

From a technical perspective, gold is moving within a solid upward range after bouncing from the support level of $3,928 per ounce. The metal is currently trading around $4,133, with a clear bias toward testing the resistance at $4,145, which extends to $4,180 and presents a real obstacle to further gains.

On a 4-hour chart, the metal shows a medium-term upward trend with higher highs and higher lows since the start of the last quarter. After the sharp decline at the end of October, prices managed to build a solid support base, encouraging a gradual return of buyers. The $4,046 level remains a critical secondary support; breaking below it could signal a deeper correction phase.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) recorded a reading of 75 points, indicating short-term overbought conditions that may require a slight correction before resuming the upward movement. The moving average of the indicator remains below current readings, reflecting continued positive momentum. A bullish divergence was also observed between price movement and RSI, where the indicator formed higher lows while prices moved sideways, supporting the possibility of continued buying.

Trading volumes have gradually improved alongside recent gains, confirming the entry of new capital into the market. Traders are currently focusing on support levels at $4,046 and $3,928 as key defensive lines in case of a pullback.

Strategic Support and Resistance Levels

Nearby Support:

• $4,046: Strong support level near current price. Holding above it supports the bullish outlook.
• $3,928: Pivot support that halted the previous decline. A break below could indicate a short-term trend reversal.
• $3,470: Long-term strategic support. Reaching this level would mean a deep correction and loss of momentum.

Future Resistance:

• $4,145: Immediate resistance. A strong close above it supports further upward movement.
• $4,381: A previous significant high. Surpassing it opens the way for a strong rally.
• $4,500: Long-term technical target if positive momentum continues.

Performance Expectations Until End of Day

Gold is expected to continue its upward movement during the remaining trading hours, with prices heading toward the $4,145–4,200 range. This zone represents a key resistance area that may cause a temporary pause before a new breakout attempt.

The primary driver remains expectations of a rate cut in December, supported by weak U.S. economic performance. Despite short-term overbought conditions, support from a weak dollar and declining bond yields still favors buyers.

Positive Scenario: A clear break above $4,200 could push prices toward the $4,300 target in the coming weeks.

Alternative Scenario: Selling pressures may push prices back toward $4,046 and then $3,928 if strong positive economic surprises occur.

The overall trend remains bullish, with slight corrective movements possible before testing higher resistance levels.

Performance of Other Precious Metals

Other precious metals experienced positive gains during today’s trading, aligned with gold’s strength but to varying degrees.

Silver approached the $50.9 per ounce level, benefiting from improved sentiment toward defensive assets, though its sensitivity to industrial demand may limit its near-term rally pace.

Platinum traded around $1,584 per ounce, supported by a recovery in demand within manufacturing sectors, especially the automotive industry. However, traders need clearer data on industrial growth to confirm the bullish path.

Palladium continued its ascent toward $1,435 per ounce, benefiting from improved global supply chain conditions that had previously constrained supplies, providing additional support compared to other metals more closely tied to monetary policy.

Overall, these metals benefit from economic uncertainty and dollar weakness, but gold remains the leader amid growing expectations of rate cuts and increasing demand, while silver, platinum, and palladium move based on mixed drivers from industrial and financial demand.