2026-01-06 18:20:36

The most eye-catching thing in the recent market isn't the fluctuations of a certain coin, but the discussion around the USD1 de-pegging odds—an odds of 1 to 47, comparable to betting on the Chinese national football team winning the World Cup. Private messages are full of questions like "Can I get on board?" As someone who has been in the stablecoin field for 8 years, I have to say: this matter requires caution.

The reserve structure of USD1 is indeed solid. Over 95% is allocated to cash and US Treasuries maturing within 90 days, with the remaining portion also consisting of high-rated municipal bonds and commercial paper, completely avoiding high-risk assets. More importantly, it is jointly custodied by JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America, with funds physically separated from the issuer—meaning that even if the issuer encounters issues, users can directly redeem dollars from the custodian bank. Why can this mechanism attract 47 times the betting? Simply put, the market generally believes it is "rock solid."

But I have to pour cold water here. The stability of stablecoins has always been a relative concept. Do you remember the UST collapse in 2022? It dropped from $1 to $0.044 in five days, with $40 billion evaporating instantly. At that time, many people deeply believed in its algorithmic mechanism. Historical cases tell us that no matter how perfect the design, extreme market shocks can still break it.

USD1-0,08%

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HappyToBeDumped

· 01-09 01:48

1 to 47? Brother, this betting ratio, I just laughed. UST hasn't had enough lessons yet, and now there's another round of "perfect design." No matter how strong the reserves are, in extreme market conditions, they are just paper tigers. This wave of risk is a bit too high, I prefer to wait and see. It's best to buy the dip early, everyone, but the premise is to be alive. The question is, who can really predict extreme market conditions? A 47x payout sounds great, but waking up might just be a pipe dream. I think, the "stability" of stablecoins is essentially a false proposition. The textbook-level crash last year is just over a year ago, and now everyone is starting to forget collectively?

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BlockchainArchaeologist

· 01-08 07:48

1 to 47 payout? Sounds like gambling, is it really that stable? --- That wave of UST still hasn't learned its lesson, and now you're trusting something like "rock-solid stability" --- Is Morgan Trust necessarily safe? Did we forget the script from 2022 so quickly? --- 95% US debt allocation sounds hardcore, but extreme market conditions are a different story --- Everyone's asking if they can get on board, I'm quite speechless, here we go again --- The "stability" of stablecoins is only relative at best, can't even think of this logic? --- Well said, it's time to pour cold water; the higher the odds, the greater the risk. Isn't that common sense? --- A 47x bet indicates the market is still gambling, it's not truly stable --- I believe your 8 years of experience, but when the market goes crazy, no one can stop it --- Even perfect design can't withstand black swan events, history has already told us that

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FreeRider

· 01-06 18:50

1 to 47 payout? That's truly outrageous, but the UST incident was really blood-curdling.

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RegenRestorer

· 01-06 18:49

47x odds sound exciting, but I still think of that scene with UST... Some things, no matter how tough, can't withstand a true black swan.

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GateUser-9ad11037

· 01-06 18:49

1 to 47? Wake up, there’s no such thing as a free lunch Have you not learned your lesson from UST yet, brother? No matter how strong the reserves are, they can't stop black swan events. Honestly, it's a bit scary. Just looking at it makes me want to get out; this risk premium is definitely a trap. I believe in reserves, but I trust history to repeat itself even more.

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LightningClicker

· 01-06 18:43

1 to 47? Honestly, the probability is even lower than my bottom-fishing success rate, haha. Oh, and don't just look at the reserve structure. Haven't you learned the lesson from the 2022 UST incident yet? This round is just another gamble, just with different chips.

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