Understand the US CPI release schedule and grasp the inflation trend for 2024

CPI Release Schedule and Market Reaction Key Points

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI), as one of the most closely watched economic indicators globally, directly influences market volatility upon release. The CPI release is fixed on the first business day of each month or the nearest business day, but the exact timing varies due to daylight saving time — at 20:30 Taiwan time during daylight saving time, and 21:30 during standard time.

Why are markets so sensitive to the CPI release timing? Because US CPI data is released before the PCE data, which is the Federal Reserve’s primary reference for policy decisions. Every decision made by the Fed ultimately impacts major global asset prices, so investors tend to stay highly alert around CPI release times.

The 2024 CPI release schedule (Taiwan time) is as follows: January 11 at 21:30, February 13 at 21:30, March 12 at 21:30, April 10 at 20:30, May 15 at 20:30, June 12 at 20:30, July 11 at 20:30, August 14 at 20:30, September 11 at 20:30, October 10 at 20:30, November 13 at 21:30, December 11 at 21:30.

Interpreting Inflation Indicators: Differences Between CPI, Core CPI, and PCE

There are many indicators reflecting inflation in the market, but the core measurement systems mainly include two series: CPI and PCE. Each series further subdivides into monthly growth rate, annual growth rate, and dimensions such as core and non-core.

The core difference between CPI and Core CPI lies in their scope of calculation. CPI covers price changes for all goods and services, including volatile items like food and energy. Core CPI excludes these volatile components, providing a more precise reflection of the price trends of other consumer goods and services. For investors, this distinction is crucial as it influences judgments about inflation persistence.

Differences in statistical methods between CPI and PCE are also noteworthy. CPI uses a Laspeyres weighting method, while PCE employs chain-weighting, which better captures substitution effects after price changes. For example, when oil prices surge, consumers shift to alternative energy sources; PCE’s calculation can reflect this dynamic adjustment, smoothing out price fluctuations.

The practical meaning of monthly vs. annual growth rates determines how we interpret price trends. The annual rate compares figures to the same period last year, eliminating some seasonal factors, and more stably reflects the actual trend of prices than the monthly rate.

Investors should focus on two key indicators: US CPI annual rate (released earliest and most market-moving) and US PCE annual rate (used for policy decisions and equally important).

CPI Composition Analysis: Key Weights Investors Should Watch

The main components of US CPI and their approximate shares are: Housing and Rent (30–40%) dominate, followed by Food and Beverages (13–15%), Education and Communication (6–7%), Medical Care (7–9%), Transportation Services (5–6%), Energy (6–8%), New and Used Cars (3–5% and 2–3%), Recreation (3–5%), Clothing (2–3%).

The high proportion of housing indicates that changes in real estate-related prices often become decisive factors for overall CPI performance. Food and beverages, as daily necessities, also have significant price volatility. Smart investors analyze these larger-weighted components to capture the true inflation drivers.

Core Drivers of CPI Changes in 2024

Two major factors influencing the US CPI trend in 2024 warrant in-depth analysis.

Factor 1: Policy Uncertainty Due to the US Presidential Election

The US presidential election will be held in November 2024. Regardless of the party in power, campaign promises tend to be exaggerated, and amid current geopolitical tensions, this can lead to externalizing domestic conflicts through policy. The result is increased geopolitical risk, a slowdown in globalization, and ultimately difficulty in achieving smooth deflation.

Factor 2: Market Expectations for the Fed’s Rate Cut Pace

According to CME Group data, the market most expects a 6 basis point rate cut by the Fed in 2024. This reflects a belief that US CPI will trend downward throughout the year, but not smoothly — aligning with our subsequent technical analysis.

Historical Cycles and Inflation Patterns

Over the past three decades, US CPI has experienced four distinct inflation-up and down cycles, each linked to major economic events.

The first cycle (July 1990 to March 1991) was triggered by the savings and loan crisis and Gulf War oil shocks. The second cycle (September 2000 to October 2001) resulted from the dot-com bubble burst and 9/11. The third cycle (January 2008 to June 2009) corresponded to the full outbreak of the US subprime mortgage crisis. The fourth cycle (from March 2020) began with the global COVID-19 pandemic.

The fourth cycle is particularly noteworthy. The initial economic halt caused CPI to fall rapidly, but after the Fed’s large-scale liquidity injections, CPI peaked in June 2022. As global logistics gradually recovered and the pandemic subsided, CPI retreated from its high levels.

It’s important to note that global logistics conditions have a far greater impact on US inflation than expected. Recent disruptions in the Red Sea, caused by ongoing Houthi attacks forcing ships to reroute around the Suez Canal, have doubled shipping costs on Eurasian routes since early December 2023. Although this short-term impact is less severe than the 2021 “Ever Given” grounding, rising regional logistics costs will eventually feed into consumer prices, warranting continuous monitoring.

Forward-Looking Analysis of CPI Trends in 2024

The fundamental economic growth rate is the starting point for understanding CPI trends in 2024. The IMF forecasts US economic growth at 2.1% in 2024, ranking second among major economies, slowing to 1.7% in 2025. The global growth rate is revised upward to 3.1%, but the Eurozone’s growth is lowered to 0.9%. In this economic context, US inflation is unlikely to fall quickly to historical lows.

Combined with commodity supply-side observations, crude oil and other commodities showed oscillating downward trends in the first half of 2023, suggesting that due to low base effects, CPI may struggle to sustain rapid declines in the first half of 2024. Meanwhile, current crude oil inventories are declining, providing support for oil prices.

Overall, the expected CPI trend in 2024 is: bottom in Q1, rebound in Q2, and decline in the second half. This pattern is influenced by the US election cycle, geopolitical conflicts disrupting logistics, and Fed policy adjustments. Throughout the year, CPI is expected to trend downward gradually, but rebound risks should not be overlooked.

Investment Implications

Understanding the timing of US CPI releases and the underlying economic logic is key to grasping the market rhythm in 2024. Market participants should closely monitor data around each release, paying attention not only to absolute values but also to deviations from expectations. Additionally, analyzing CPI composition, historical cycles, and global supply chain conditions from multiple angles enables more accurate predictions of Fed policy directions and asset allocation adjustments. In short, although CPI release times are brief, their informational content can significantly influence market expectations for the entire year.