#Polymarket预测市场 Recently, I saw prediction data on Polymarket regarding the Fed Chair nomination, and the probability for Haskett has risen to 61%. Many people are indeed very interested in this topic. I recall talking to a few friends who, upon seeing data from prediction markets like this, tend to follow the trend and place bets, but the results are often disappointing.

I want to remind everyone of a very practical issue: although prediction markets are information-rich, they are essentially a high-risk investment form. The appointment of the Fed Chair involves complex political factors and economic considerations, and a single probability figure often masks the underlying uncertainties. If you engage with such products, I suggest asking yourself a few questions first—what percentage of my overall assets does this investment represent? Can I afford to lose 100% of this amount?

In the long run, rather than chasing every hot prediction, it’s better to focus on understanding fundamentals, managing positions well, and isolating risks. No matter who ultimately becomes the Fed Chair, a prudent asset allocation strategy won’t be derailed by a single event. That’s true peace of mind.