2026-01-07 08:29:56

Tonight's ADP employment data is about to be released, and this is the key focus for the market today. Based on current expectations, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in January is only around 20%.

The logic behind this number is actually not complicated—unless the ADP data shows a significant deterioration in the employment market, the Fed's stance is unlikely to change fundamentally. In other words, as long as employment data does not show extreme situations, market volatility should be limited.

Interestingly, the recent crypto market has already digested most of the negative factors. In this context, as long as there are some positive signals, the rebound potential and momentum remain quite considerable. The key still depends on how subsequent data unfolds.

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GamefiEscapeArtist

· 01-08 11:16

If the employment data doesn't trigger a major downturn, there's basically no hope; a 20% probability is realistic. The crypto market has already digested the bottom this round; it depends on how much room there is for a subsequent rebound. ADP data is key; it depends on how it unfolds.

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ChainComedian

· 01-07 08:58

Wait, a 20% chance and you're still hyping it up? That means it's impossible. But on the other hand, the crypto market really should rebound now; all the bearish news has been priced in. Do ADP data have to be so dramatic? Anyway, just relax and it'll be fine.

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not_your_keys

· 01-07 08:57

Just say it, ADP data is 99% just along for the ride; the real movement depends on the Fed's stance. Just wait, the crypto market has already taken a heavy hit this round; we're just waiting for a catalyst. If the data doesn't explode, is it considered a positive? I think it's uncertain.

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NFTregretter

· 01-07 08:55

Wait, can ADP data really determine anything? I feel like this logic has already been overused. Always saying "as long as it's not extreme," but what's the definition of extreme? Who decides? Has the crypto market digested the bad news? Then why is it still falling? I'm rugging. The promised rebound space, why did it get crushed again before it even arrived?

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TerraNeverForget

· 01-07 08:54

Everyone is waiting for ADP, anyway there's no hope for rate cuts, mainly just watching for employment data to not be too bad. Honestly, now crypto has mostly digested the bad news, just waiting for a positive excuse. Wait for tonight's data, there might be surprises. The probability of a rate cut is about 20%... hmm, pretty much in line with my expectations, after all, the Federal Reserve is hawkish. The current position of crypto actually shows clear bottom signals. Once the ADP data is released, there will probably be some volatility, but not too intense. It's a bit annoying how these "key data" often don't trigger significant reactions, but rather external factors cause disruptions. If employment doesn't worsen drastically, we might have a better chance; this logic isn't bad.

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GasFeeGazer

· 01-07 08:33

Here we go again, about the ADP data—I've seen this trick before. Probably waiting to be hammered down. Cryptocurrency has mostly digested the bad news; now it's just a matter of how the Federal Reserve folks will twist it. If the data isn't extreme, there won't be much fluctuation? Then let's just wait for a rebound. As long as it doesn't collapse, I'm betting on a rebound.

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HodlTheDoor

· 01-07 08:31

ADP data is unlikely to surprise us; the Fed folks are just like this. Unless a real unemployment wave hits, The crypto market has already bottomed out in this wave; we're just waiting for a trigger point for a rebound. When that happens, it'll be our time to profit. Anyway, it's a 20% chance—believe it or not. I don't expect any good news in January. No matter how the data comes out, it’s all the same. The key is how they hype it afterward. Do you understand? It's been digested long ago. Now, it's just a matter of whether anyone dares to jump in.

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