This Recovery Phase Has No Small-Scale Cash Flow – And That's What Matters

If you observe the market closely during the recent rebound, a quite clear picture can be seen: besides BTC and ETH, most altcoins are recovering in a state of liquidity exhaustion. Even meme coins that once symbolized speculative capital flow, like PEPE, are only “twitching” in a sluggish trading environment. This is completely different from the genuine recoveries in the past. Current Liquidity: Lower Than October Last Year Comparing the current trading data with October last year, the difference is very clear. The total market trading volume is significantly lower, especially in the mid and small-cap altcoin groups. A recovery where prices rise but volume does not keep pace usually does not signal new capital inflows, but rather: Capital rotation among a small group Short-covering Or technical pulls to create the illusion of a “market bottom” The Absence of Retail Investors The key point of this rebound is: almost no participation from retail. There are two possibilities coexisting: Most small investors have suffered heavy losses and left the market Those who remain have lost confidence, after too many times being “manipulated,” scammed, rug pulled, and narratives failing As a result, even if prices are pushed up, small retail investors stay on the sidelines, observing, with no FOMO like in previous cycles. A Market Being Pumped but Not Trusted In the past, whenever altcoins started to recover, volume usually increased first, followed by price. But currently, the opposite is happening: prices are pushed up while liquidity is thinning. This reflects an important reality: The market can go up, but it no longer convinces the majority. When confidence is eroded long enough, just pushing prices is not enough to trigger a sustainable bull cycle. Conclusion: This Is Not a True Bull Market Yet A proper bull market always requires retail participation, as it is the last source of liquidity to absorb profit-taking. When: Altcoins recover but volume remains low Meme coins fail to attract new capital Small retail investors stay on the sidelines then this rebound is likely just a technical correction, rather than the start of a new growth cycle. In such a context, patience is more important than excitement. The current market does not reward impatience, but only favors those who understand which phase of the cycle they are in.