Speaking of the US and Venezuela, there's quite a heated debate online. But if you're an investor, setting aside moral issues, the real concern is: will this crash or boost Bitcoin?

The answer is actually quite straightforward. Trump and his team’s ultimate goal is only one—re-election. What do voters care about? The economy and inflation. But there's a detail here: oil prices. There's a proven "10% rule"—if gasoline prices increase by more than 10% in the three months before the election, the ruling party is more likely to be ousted. Americans rely heavily on cars, and gas station prices can directly influence votes. So Trump's interest in Venezuela's oil is fundamentally about lowering oil prices to stabilize public sentiment, while simultaneously printing more money to boost nominal GDP growth. One hand pleases ordinary people, the other supplies liquidity to the wealthy—a perfect election script.

The problem is, oil prices are hard to control. There are roughly two paths forward: one is printing money to boost GDP while oil prices also surge, giving Democrats a better chance; the other is GDP rising but oil prices being suppressed or falling, favoring Republicans.

For cryptocurrencies, fluctuations in oil prices themselves don't have a big impact—miners' costs will adjust accordingly. What's truly critical is whether politicians are forced to stop printing money. The current situation is clear: for the sake of the election, Trump is likely to repeat the 2020 playbook—massively printing money and expanding fiscal deficits without hesitation. One of Bitcoin’s most important driving forces is the liquidity of the US dollar. When the dollar is abundant, crypto assets tend to rise along with it. Recent market movements have also validated this logic—when macro liquidity is ample, markets tend to go up.