#数字资产行情上升 The rumors about the US Supreme Court's tariff ruling on Friday have already flooded the internet, causing the market to react swiftly, with various "crash warnings" flying everywhere. As a long-term trader who keeps a close eye on the market, I also want to share my thoughts on this matter.

The news itself is indeed significant, with a 78% probability hanging over it. Theoretically, once it’s determined to be illegal, refund expectations will emerge, which will have an undeniable impact on market psychology. However, many people overlook the key details—the $600 billion refund figure is the "worst-case scenario," and some voices in the community believe this is an overhyped exaggeration. In other words, the market has already been digesting and questioning this number, and panic may not necessarily lead to a one-sided sell-off.

I’ve checked the on-chain situation, and in the past two days, there have been no signs of panic-driven large outflows. The token reserves on exchanges remain stable, and the longs/shorts ratio in the derivatives market has not become extremely unbalanced. What does this mean? The truly influential "smart money" is still in the game, and some may even be patiently waiting for the right opportunity.

Historical experience tells us that before major judicial rulings, the market often engages in "expectation betting"—initially selling off when the news breaks, then rebounding once the actual ruling is announced, especially if the ruling is negative, as the market reacts to the realization of the expected outcome. Some analysts suggest this could be a contrarian signal, and I partly agree. The crypto market is known for its contrarian nature, often moving against general expectations, which is a routine part of this market.

My current judgment is this: before Friday, the market is likely to experience volatility, possibly used as a shakeout. But once the ruling is officially announced, whether it’s positive or negative, increased volatility could create a good entry point. Don’t rush to sell off; I will be gradually building positions at key support levels. If the price holds and even rebounds, it indicates strong market resilience, and the subsequent trend could be more optimistic.

A key reminder: don’t be led by sensationalist headlines. Monitoring the progress of the ruling is necessary, but more importantly, watch the real on-chain fund movements. Maintain proper risk management and reserve some flexible capital—when volatility truly hits, that will be the moment to test your trading skills.

One last word: macro news is the fuse, but on-chain data is the real gunpowder. Keep your emotions in check, and we can confidently win. $ETH