#密码资产动态追踪 Will the U.S. Supreme Court's tariff ruling on Friday be a turning point for the crypto market?

Industry rumors suggest there's a 78% chance this ruling will declare Trump's tariff policies "illegal." If true, the U.S. stock market, Bitcoin, and the entire cryptocurrency market could face a synchronized decline. This prediction sounds alarming, but a closer look at the logic reveals some fragility.

**Why shouldn't we overinterpret this ruling?**

Equating a single legal event directly with "the worst day in the market" essentially involves using one variable to explain complex market behavior — which is not very scientific. The Supreme Court's decision is indeed important; it concerns the boundaries of presidential executive power and the legal basis of trade policies, which could influence systemic aspects in the long run. But in the short term? Market reactions depend on how investors "interpret" the outcome, not the ruling itself.

**What is the reality?**

Regardless of what the Supreme Court rules, a high-probability event is: volatility will increase. Especially in the U.S. stock market and crypto markets highly correlated with it, significant fluctuations often occur before and after major legal rulings. But increased volatility does not equal a one-sided crash — these are two entirely different things.

**How should you respond?**

If you're a trader, this uncertainty could indeed create short-term trading opportunities. But only if based on real-time market structure and factual data, not just betting on the accuracy of this prediction.

If you're a long-term holder of Bitcoin or other crypto assets, such exaggerated forecasts based on short-term news are even less reliable as decision-making bases. The key factors remain macroeconomic cycles, capital flows into Bitcoin spot ETFs, and technological developments.

**Final words**

The Friday ruling is worth paying attention to, and risk preparedness is necessary. But the ability to precisely predict market turning points is rare in reality. Stay rational in handling volatility, be prepared, but there's no need for excessive panic.