2026-01-07 10:25:26

ETH's recent movement has been quite interesting. I spent some time analyzing the 1-hour chart and want to share a few observations.

**Technical aspects involve many details.** The recent pullback precisely hit the middle band of the BOLL at around 3227, which doesn't seem like random fluctuation—more like the main force is shaking out traders. Although the MACD's DIF temporarily crossed below DEA, the green histogram bars have already shrunk significantly. Historically, there have been two similar "shrinking death crosses," and ETH surged nearly 4% at the 1-hour level each time. Now, this pattern appears again.

**On-chain data provides additional support.** Just an hour ago, net outflows of ETH from the three major exchanges increased by 5,000 ETH. More notably, large holders with over 10,000 ETH opened 2 new accumulation addresses within half an hour. This indicates that institutions are quietly accumulating, while retail investors are cutting losses. Such opposite fund flows are indeed a noteworthy signal.

**Fundamentals are also not ignored.** After the Ethereum developer meeting last night confirmed the Cancun upgrade, staking unlock efficiency increased by 30%. Subsequently, Lido's staked ETH added 12,000 ETH. This shows staking demand is warming up, which can support a mid-term bottom. From this perspective, the current 1-hour pullback seems more like an emotional digestion window for entry.

**What about the next steps?** If your position is still light, consider adding to the range of 3230-3240 to achieve a more balanced level. For those already holding, stop-loss can be set at 3200 (BOLL lower band). Short-term, focus on the 3280 resistance; see if it can approach 3300 during tomorrow's early trading.

Many in the crypto space understand the logic of losses—holding through shakeouts, chasing after rallies. The ones who truly profit are often those who understand the "fake moves" of the main force. If you miss this wave, waiting until the price hits 3300 to chase might leave little room for profit.

ETH0,67%

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LiquidationWatcher

· 01-10 10:08

The decreasing volume death cross is back again, feeling like history repeating itself. If you don't follow this wave, you'll really miss out.

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FancyResearchLab

· 01-07 10:43

Another story where a "shrinking volume death cross" supposedly must lead to a rally... I'll try this signal first, and then see if I lock myself around 3227 again. --- Institutions secretly eat up retail investors' losses. This trick has been old and worn out, so why does someone always fall for it... --- Cancun's staking efficiency increased by 30%. It sounds academically valuable but practically useless. Anyway, my position will continue to be floating in loss. --- Wait, you said it could reach 3300 early? Ha, I don't believe it, but I will still go all-in on 3240. --- Where are those who understand the main force's fake moves now? Why haven't they come out to show their record? --- Now I have to bet on the BOLL lower band again. Luban No.7 is under construction, and I wish I could set my stop-loss order at 3100.

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GasGuru

· 01-07 10:28

It's the familiar recipe again: shrinking volume death cross + big whale eating up. I've seen this combo many times before. Whether to buy or not in the 3230-3240 range really depends on your mindset. Those with a good mindset are adding now, while those with a poor mindset are waiting for 3200. After the Kunming upgrade, the staking volume has indeed picked up, which feels like a mid-term safety net. By the way, when was the last time this pattern appeared? It also pulled nearly 4%, right? Retail investors cutting losses and institutions eating up—an eternal story. Many will regret missing the 3300 train. The feeling of getting on now versus chasing high is completely different. But can the 3280 resistance really be broken? It feels like someone might dump there.

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DegenApeSurfer

· 01-07 10:25

It's the same old story of a shrinking death cross—never fails to work. The last time this happened, it really pulled back by 4 points. Institutions secretly accumulating while retail investors get shaken out—I've seen this contrast too many times, just haven't learned how to pick a side. The rebound in staking demand is quite real, but it still depends on whether we can break through 3280 in the early trading tomorrow; otherwise, it's just a false prosperity. Try a little at 3230 to test the waters—anyway, as long as you hold on and don't cut losses, you'll win.

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