ETH is oscillating between two major liquidation thresholds, with the risk of $1.8 billion in short positions far exceeding long positions.

Ethereum’s current price is $3,207.52, at a delicate position. According to the latest data, if ETH breaks through $3,368, the cumulative short liquidation strength on mainstream CEXs will reach $1.809 billion; conversely, if it falls below $3,068, the cumulative long liquidation strength will reach $825 million. This means ETH is within a $300 range, facing two obvious liquidation risk points, with asymmetric risks on the upper and lower sides.

Asymmetric Distribution of Liquidation Risks

Currently, ETH is only $161 away from the upward critical point of $3,368, about a 5% increase; it is also only $139 away from the downward critical point of $3,068, roughly a 4.3% decrease. At first glance, these distances seem similar, but the liquidation intensities differ greatly.

) Why is the short risk greater?

Based on data, the short liquidation strength at the upward breakout ($1.809 billion) is 2.19 times the long liquidation strength at the downward breakout ($825 million). This reflects a key market phenomenon: currently, short positions are more concentrated or leveraged.

This asymmetry generally indicates:

• A strong bearish sentiment or arbitrage positions in the market
• If the price suddenly breaks upward, concentrated stop-losses among shorts will generate a stronger liquidity shock
• While longs are fewer in number, they are more dispersed

) Signals from the current market structure

From related information, the net inflow of 13,550 ETH into CEXs over the past 7 days suggests institutional or large holder accumulation at higher prices. Meanwhile, market funding rates show that altcoins are generally bearish, but Bitcoin maintains a neutral rate. Under this structure, ETH, as a market indicator, will directly influence market sentiment through its price movements.

Key points to watch in subsequent trends

Probability of price breakthrough

From the current position of $3,207.52, breaking above $3,368 requires sustained upward momentum. According to recent data, ETH has risen 7.78% over the past 7 days, indicating a rebound momentum. However, it has fallen 0.60% in the last 24 hours, showing short-term correction pressure.

Market implications of liquidation strength

Liquidation strength data essentially reflect the potential of “liquidity waves.” Higher liquidation strength means that when the price reaches that level, the forced liquidation of large positions will cause a stronger price impact. The $1.809 billion short liquidation strength suggests that if the price truly breaks through $3,368, a relatively sharp upward move could occur.

Turning point in long-short game

Personal opinion: The current asymmetric liquidation distribution may actually signal a potential bullish opportunity. Excessive concentration of shorts often precedes reversals. If positive catalysts emerge (such as macro improvements or large buy orders), the probability of breaking through $3,368 will significantly increase, and the subsequent short liquidations could further push the price higher.

However, caution is needed if the price falls below $3,068. Although the liquidation strength is smaller, it may indicate a fundamental shift in market sentiment, with larger downside potential ahead.

Summary

ETH is currently in a liquidation-sensitive zone, with two clear critical points on both sides. The short liquidation risk ($1.809 billion) far exceeds the long liquidation risk ($825 million), indicating a market with relatively concentrated bearish positions. Technically, ETH has performed well in the past 7 days’ rebound, but short-term correction pressure remains. The key next step is to observe whether the price can break through the $3,368 resistance. Once broken, concentrated stop-losses among shorts may create positive feedback; otherwise, downward risks should be watched carefully. For traders, this data highlights the current leverage structure and risk distribution in the market, rather than a simple buy or sell signal.