#密码资产动态追踪 Can Ethereum make a move? My view is yes, and it’s happening right now in these two days.

I’m someone who makes a living from trading, and honestly, I rely on one thing: data. But you need to know how to read the data — beneath the surface volatility, there’s actually energy being accumulated.

**Technical Outlook**

The Bollinger Bands are now tightly squeezed together, with the price oscillating around the middle band. The volatility has been compressed to a dead point — this is the "spring compression" before a breakout; once it can’t stretch anymore, it’s ready to spring out.

The MACD is even more interesting. Although the histogram bars are still wandering near the zero line, look at the lows — they are rising, with each low higher than the previous one. The value of 0.83 indicates bullish momentum is building. As long as the daily close can hold above 3270, the bulls will have re-taken control.

**On-Chain Signals**

What are the big players doing? They’re withdrawing funds. Over the past week, Ethereum has net outflows of over 200,000 coins from exchanges. This isn’t dumping; it’s accumulation — moving coins into cold wallets to gather dust.

What about the perpetual contract funding rates? They’ve turned positive but are not yet hot, indicating that bulls are gradually positioning without over-committing.

Looking at whale addresses — addresses holding over 10,000 ETH — seven more have increased their holdings in the past five days. Institutional buying is quietly entering the market; this is worth paying attention to.

**Market News**

The final decision on spot ETFs is expected in May. The SEC and issuers are now in frequent contact, and the market is betting on approval. This expectation can support the market.

Ethereum’s upgrade (Pectra) is scheduled to go live within the year, and staking yields are expected to rise, which is attractive to dollar-cost averaging investors. Plus, with the Federal Reserve’s rate cut cycle approaching, liquidity conditions will improve, making Ethereum’s "leverage tool" easier to follow.

**Trading Strategy**

Gradually buy on dips. Accumulate in stages when the price retraces to 3220–3250, with a stop-loss set at 3150.

First target at 3380; if broken, then watch for 3550.

What about risks? If volume suddenly crashes through 3150, then the structure needs to be reassessed, but I estimate the probability of that happening is less than 30%.

In short, technical convergence, on-chain accumulation, and news catalysts — if these three align, it’s the start of a new market cycle. The market pattern is like this — bottoms are built when people are afraid, and rallies happen when they’re hesitant. Now is the window to act.