Behind Ethereum's Breakout Rally: Institutional Continuous Entry, BPO Upgrade Accelerates Layer-2, but RSI Signals Overbought Warning

2026-01-07 11:20:13

【Crypto World】Ethereum’s recent rally is quite fierce. A 1.13% increase over 24 hours isn’t much, but nearly 9.60% over seven days stands out, especially in the context of a sluggish overall crypto market.

From a capital perspective, on January 6th alone, there was a net inflow of $114.7 million into spot Ethereum ETFs, indicating that institutions are indeed increasing their positions. The underlying logic is clear— the BPO hard fork activated on January 8th increased the blob capacity of individual blocks, directly reducing Layer-2 rollup costs, which aligns perfectly with Vitalik’s “rollup-centric” roadmap. Technical and capital factors are working together.

On-chain data is even more interesting. Over the past month, whales have net accumulated over 3.62 million ETH, while ETH reserves on exchanges hit a nine-year low. This pattern of “big players hoarding, exchanges selling” is often a bullish signal—true holders are locking their assets, and circulating supply is shrinking.

But a reality check is needed. The current RSI has already surged to 64, a typical overbought signal. Short-term volatility risks are significant. From a technical perspective, resistance is at $3,307 (corresponding to the 100-day moving average), and support is at $3,132 (50-day moving average). This range represents the recent trading space. Continuous institutional inflows are positive, but don’t get carried away by the rally—overbought conditions often precede reversals.

ETH0,38%

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TokenDustCollector

· 01-09 13:56

Whales are accumulating, and exchanges are short... I’m familiar with this rhythm; around this time in previous years, it’s always a signal before a big surge. Institutions are also following suit, but be cautious with the RSI overbought condition to avoid getting trapped.

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TokenomicsTherapist

· 01-07 11:50

Whales are accumulating again? The exchange ETH hits a new low... This rhythm is definitely a bullish signal. Institutions are pouring in 110 million USD a day, BPO upgrades are causing Layer-2 costs to drop sharply, is V神's roadmap finally about to bear fruit? RSI is overbought, but the key question is who is in there? They are all genuine institutions with real money. This nine-day rally of 9.6% is actually just a prelude to the big explosion of Layer-2, right? More and more people are accumulating coins, while exchanges are bleeding, which is almost a bottom signal.

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GamefiHarvester

· 01-07 11:47

Institutions are bottom-fishing, whales are accumulating, exchanges are emptying... This rhythm feels like it's about to take off. Wait, RSI is already overbought and still pushing in, aren't you afraid of getting trapped? This BPO move is really fierce, Layer2 costs have been cut down, those who were previously bearish should eat their words. A 9.60% seven-day increase, which is indeed top-tier in a bear market, but I'm still a bit hesitant. Large holders hoarding coins are going against the exchanges, this game of chess is interesting.

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MintMaster

· 01-07 11:41

Whale whales are holding positions and the exchange is empty. This signal can't be wrong, institutions are also pouring in money like crazy. It feels like ETH is really about to take off this time.

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HashRateHustler

· 01-07 11:41

Wait, a net increase of 3.62 million whales? Exchange reserves hit a nine-year low? This pace doesn't add up, the real big players are all stocking up... --- BPO upgrade has been hyped for so long, finally seeing some real money coming in—$110 million inflow in a day is indeed impressive, but watch out for the RSI overbought trap. --- Institutions are increasing their positions, big players are stocking up, and exchanges are shorting... Isn't this a classic signal of a top forming? Still, caution is advised. --- Vitalik's rollup roadmap is finally showing some progress. If Layer 2 costs can really be reduced, this rally will have some real substance. --- Nine-year low? Feels like a top, don't become the bagholder at high levels again.

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CryingOldWallet

· 01-07 11:24

Whales are accumulating, and exchanges are shorting. I've seen this rhythm before... The true holders are betting on the future, and institutions are also increasing their positions. This wave of ETH feels a bit different.

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