#资产数字化浪潮 January 7th Gold Closing Review: Small Non-Farm Data Unveiling Tonight, Risks at the 4500 Key Level

Today’s market movement truly tested patience. Gold surged to 4500.54 but then cooled off, dropping to 4441.54, only to rebound stubbornly back to around 4466 by the close. Essentially, this was a typical wide-range shakeout, not a sign of a trend reversal to short. The medium-term bullish framework remains intact.

Why was there such a significant pullback? The reason is quite simple: on one hand, the psychological level of 4500 saw profit-taking, with traders who had been making gains starting to lock in profits; on the other hand, the small non-farm payroll data is due to be released tonight, and capital is waiting for this major event. No one wants to take unnecessary risks, so traders are being cautious. The recent decline did not see a real increase in trading volume; it was mainly short-term position adjustments, not a trend-driven move by bears.

From a macro perspective, the Fed’s rate cut pace through 2026 remains unchanged. The US dollar is under medium to long-term pressure, which is a fundamental support for gold’s continued strength. Meanwhile, US inflation is still far from the target, and demand for safe-haven assets remains, with geopolitical risks still present. Gold’s safe-haven attribute continues to underpin its price.

If tonight’s small non-farm data meets or exceeds expectations, it will only cause short-term pressure, but it won’t change the overall direction of the Fed’s rate cuts. The negative impact is temporary and won’t alter the big trend.

Technically, the outlook remains stable. After dropping to 4441, gold quickly rebounded, and the support around 4460 was firmly defended by the end of the session. The strong daily chart pattern has not been broken, and 4441 has become a key support level. If prices can hold above 4480-4490, the probability of retesting 4500 remains high. Even if it breaks below 4441, the 4400 level is a strong support zone, making it difficult for bears to sustain a downward trend.

In terms of trading strategy, the recent approach should focus on range-bound trading, with a bullish bias:

- If the price rebounds to 4475-4480, consider a cautious short position with a stop loss at 4490, targeting 4460-4450.
- If the price pulls back to 4445-4450 and holds, consider a light long position with a stop loss at 4440, targeting 4470-4480.

During the data release period, be sure to control risk exposure and avoid holding onto positions blindly.