Bitcoin price enters moderate expansion as spot-driven gains outpace derivatives

Source: Cryptonews Original Title: Bitcoin price enters moderate expansion as spot-driven gains outpace derivatives Original Link: Bitcoin (BTC) price has recovered amid a return of risk appetite, with market analysis indicating the rally is being led by spot trading rather than leveraged positions, according to research from Adler AM.

The composite derivatives pressure index has returned to positive territory following December’s deleveraging period. The spot market is currently leading the rally rather than leverage, representing a structurally healthier dynamic.

The market has transitioned into a moderate expansion regime, with price growth outpacing the buildup of derivatives positions, indicating a spot-driven nature of the move.

The composite index, which ranges from 0 to 5 and is normalized via a 90-day Z-Score, reflects aggregate derivatives pressure including open interest momentum, price momentum, divergence, acceleration, and absolute position levels. The index entered positive territory after an extended period around zero and below in December.

The current reading indicates moderate but not extreme optimism, remaining far from the “overheated” zone above +1.5. The regime is classified as Expansion (Moderate), meaning both price and open interest are rising simultaneously.

A positive Z-Score confirms the return of constructive sentiment in the derivatives market. A sustained hold above +1.5 would trigger strengthening, while a pullback into negative territory accompanied by rising liquidations would signal deterioration.

Divergence, calculated as the difference between 7-day open interest change and 7-day price change, currently sits in negative territory, meaning price has risen more than open interest over the past week. This contrasts with mid-December, when divergence was sharply positive against a backdrop of falling prices, indicating short accumulation.

Negative divergence is considered a sign of a spot-driven rally, which is historically more sustainable. Risk would emerge if divergence reverses into positive territory without price support, signaling excessive leverage.

The composite index remains in the moderate expansion zone, with the divergence pattern confirming that spot demand is the driver. The key focus is monitoring open interest acceleration; if derivatives begin aggressively chasing price, this would increase the risk of a local correction.

The current Expansion (Moderate) regime means both price and open interest are rising but not reaching extreme thresholds above the 80th percentile, representing a normal trend phase without signs of euphoria.

A transition to Strong Expansion would occur upon breaking upper thresholds on both indicators, while a transition to Distribution would occur if open interest continues to rise while price reverses down. The key deterioration marker is positive divergence above +5% with stagnating price.

The main trigger for continuation is price holding above current levels with gradual rather than explosive open interest growth. The main risk is a sharp reversal of divergence into positive territory without price support, which would indicate excessive accumulation of speculative positions.