2026-01-07 11:24:27

Spot ETF (represented by Strategy) did not trigger the expected surge in Bitcoin after the MSCI index inclusion rule adjustment. What exactly happened behind the scenes?

Let's start with the good news on the surface. MSCI officially confirmed that companies holding Bitcoin spot positions like Strategy will remain in the index, completely dispelling the market’s previous fears of delisting. Normally, such reassuring announcements should boost confidence, but in reality—price movements have been lackluster.

The key point is that MSCI also changed the index inclusion logic. This change directly cut off the previous wave of forced buying.

**How did the old rules work?** Strategy already had a stockholding of 200 million shares in the MSCI index. Funds tracking this index typically allocate about 10% of their holdings to it. In other words, when Strategy issues an additional 20 million shares to raise funds, MSCI automatically includes these new shares in the index. Index funds are then compelled to follow suit, mechanically buying 10% of the new shares, which amounts to 2 million shares. At $300 per share, just these passive funds could bring in an incremental $600 million. This influx of funds helps Strategy complete its financing smoothly, increase Bitcoin holdings, and ultimately support the price indirectly.

**How do the new rules work?** Now, things are different. Even if Strategy issues the same 20 million new shares, MSCI will not include these new shares in the index. This means the mandatory purchase demand from index funds drops to zero. Strategy loses this prime financing channel and must turn to private placements instead.

Want to attract private capital? There’s no choice but to offer discounts. The final result is—financing scales shrink, and the funds available for Bitcoin accumulation also decline significantly.

MSCI’s adjustment this time is essentially a double-edged sword: on one hand, it eliminates the risk of delisting and stabilizes market sentiment; on the other hand, it blocks the main Bitcoin buying channel that previously existed. The positive and negative factors offset each other, so although the news is good, the market reaction remains muted.

BTC0,31%

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ImpermanentPhobia

· 01-07 11:42

Oh man, this MSCI, giving sugar with the left hand and hitting with the right, really knows how to play.

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AirdropGrandpa

· 01-07 11:36

Oh no, this is awkward. The good news actually cut off buying interest. MSCI's move was really brilliant.

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FloorPriceNightmare

· 01-07 11:25

Oh my God, this is the real truth. All for nothing. --- Another wave of illusionary market, it seems that only genuine spot buying can make a difference. --- So MSCI's move is actually cutting off the money flow from the root, a surface reassurance but secretly blocking the funding channels. --- $600 million directly evaporated, no wonder the coin price is as dead as a salted fish. If no one invests, how can it go up? --- Strategy is now awkward, from being the darling of passive funds to having to kneel to private equity and get discounted financing—that's the essence. --- Wait, does that mean good news is actually bad news? Why didn't those bullish voices see this coming? --- A double-edged sword sounds nice, but in reality, it just cuts off the incremental buying lock. Thinking about it, it's a loss.

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