ZEC has recently fallen into obvious weakness, and the 1-hour K-line chart shows several noteworthy signals.

**Technical Perspective**

From the Bollinger Bands, the upper band is at 509, the lower band at 483.82, and the middle band, with the price operating well below the middle band for a long time. This position is critical—it straightforwardly reflects that selling pressure is gradually increasing. The oscillating downward trend indicates that it won't be easy to quickly break above the middle band in the short term. If the breakdown continues, the lower band at 483.82 will become a key testing area.

The MACD indicator is also not optimistic. DIF (3.96) is still above DEA (2.63), but both values are close to the zero line, which essentially reflects that bullish momentum is significantly weakening. Don't interpret this small difference as a reversal signal—more likely, it's just a breather during the decline.

The story of volume is even more telling. You'll notice that volume shrinks during rebounds but increases during declines, which is a sign of funds fleeing. A rebound without volume support is essentially a false rally.

**On-Chain Data Insights**

Over the past 24 hours, on-chain monitoring shows that exchange inflow volume is increasing, and the distribution of holdings among whale addresses is also rising. This phenomenon usually indicates that selling pressure is accumulating. Meanwhile, active addresses on the network have stagnated, and on-chain demand is clearly insufficient, further weakening the fundamental support. Large funds are not stepping in to defend, making a trend reversal unlikely.

**Lack of News Support**

Currently, ZEC has no specific positive news, and market sentiment remains cautious. Unless there are major version upgrades, strategic partnerships, or large institutional buy-in announcements, the technical weakness will only be amplified. Negative news tends to trigger faster than people expect.

**Practical Judgment**

The short-term probability favors further decline, with the first target around the lower Bollinger Band at 483.82. Of course, if sudden positive news—such as institutional entry or an unexpected technical breakthrough—appears, close attention should be paid to whether the price can volume-wise stabilize above the middle band; otherwise, any rebound could carry high risk.

Recommendation: Do not blindly bottom-fish; set stop-loss orders if holding positions, and continue to patiently wait for confirmation signals on the right side. Rational rotation will lead to more stable gains.