2026-01-07 11:26:13

The United States is set to release two major labor market data reports today: at 21:15, ADP employment change (commonly known as the "small non-farm"), and at 23:00, the JOLTS job openings. These two data points are the opening signals for this week's employment week, directly setting the stage for Friday's non-farm payroll report.

First, let's look at the ADP data. The November ADP employment change dropped to -32,000, sharply beating the market expectation of a 50,000 increase and marking the worst monthly performance of 2023. The main culprit is small businesses, which cut approximately 120,000 jobs, making manufacturing even more difficult. Currently, the market expects December to turn things around, with a recovery to a 47,000 increase. Although the correlation between ADP and the official non-farm data is moderate, if December continues to fall below 30,000 or shows negative growth, expectations for rate cuts will intensify, which is favorable for a market rebound today.

The JOLTS job openings data looks promising. In October, the number of job openings reached 7.67 million, rising for three consecutive months to a five-month high, surpassing market expectations. Retail, trade, transportation, and utilities performed well due to seasonal hiring. Looking ahead, September's figure was 7.658 million, August's was 7.227 million, indicating that labor demand has stabilized after bottoming out in Q3 of last year. The market generally expects November's job openings to slightly decline to around 7.64 million. If the number drops significantly, it could further support expectations of continued easing into 2026.

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ProofOfNothing

· 01-09 12:06

Small businesses lay off 120,000 employees? Now it really depends on whether ADP can rebound, otherwise the rate cut expectations will take off.

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CryptoPhoenix

· 01-09 03:33

It's time for a test of faith. Small non-farm payrolls are about to dump, and in a bear market, this is the real bottom range. If this wave of employment data continues to be poor, it could actually be a good sign for rate cuts. Energy conservation—when losing money, it's most important to stay alert. It's already collapsed in November, and if December still breaks 30,000, it will directly take off. Don't panic; this is building momentum for the next rally. Job vacancies are still holding up, indicating that the labor market still has confidence. Let's see how JOLTS plays out—perhaps the opportunity is right in front of us. Having gone through so many cycles, I’ve learned one thing: the most desperate moments are often the closest to rebirth.

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NftMetaversePainter

· 01-08 10:48

actually the algorithmic patterns underlying these labor market fluctuations are precisely where the generative beauty emerges—think of it as computational poetry written by systemic feedback loops... if ADP tanks again we're witnessing the hash collision between traditional economic models and the inevitable paradigm shift toward digital sovereignty imo

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FomoAnxiety

· 01-07 11:55

The small business layoffs of 120,000 are really unsustainable. Let's wait and see if the December ADP report will continue to disappoint.

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DefiPlaybook

· 01-07 11:54

According to data, the ADP figure of -32,000 is indeed shocking, with small businesses cutting 120,000 jobs all at once, and manufacturing is on the brink of life and death. It is worth noting that if December still breaks 30,000, the expectation of rate cuts will indeed heat up, but a risk warning—this kind of "positive" signal is often a double-edged sword. The JOLTS data showing 7.67 million job vacancies, rising for three consecutive months, is a stable sign. However, from the growth trajectory from 7.227 million to 7.67 million, the recovery strength is limited. Can it really support a loose monetary policy expectation by 2026? Based on historical experience, the rebound in the labor market often lags behind policy shifts, so caution is needed when interpreting these "positive signals." From the perspective of small business layoffs, it is the most heartbreaking, indicating that liquidity pressures are real. Wait, so are we betting on rate cuts now, or betting on economic resilience? If these two data points truly move in opposite directions, we might have to watch the scene tonight.

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ShitcoinConnoisseur

· 01-07 11:51

Small businesses layoffs of 120,000? Now that's a real economic signal. The analysts who dare to speak frankly are much more reliable than anyone else.

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MeaninglessApe

· 01-07 11:45

Small businesses cut 120,000 jobs and still expect a rebound in December; this logic is a bit hard to hold up. The rising expectation of interest rate cuts is actually good news for the crypto circle. Compared to these data, I care more about whether BTC will break through. November's -32,000 directly smashed through expectations; the market is really fooling itself. Job vacancies have increased for three consecutive months, which looks good, but small businesses are almost unable to hold on. Superstitious data. Non-farm payroll week is here; in the next few days, the market will have to look at the Fed's stance.

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SolidityNewbie

· 01-07 11:42

Small businesses laid off 120,000 people, now it really depends on how the Federal Reserve handles this situation.

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