2026-01-07 11:26:20

This cycle's market behavior is indeed quite different. Observing the trend, when Bitcoin surges, all the hot money flows into BTC, draining altcoins, and even Ethereum seems to be lagging behind. Conversely, when Bitcoin pauses, funds shift into altcoins to seek opportunities, but BTC at this point becomes more of a burden. This rotation phenomenon has occurred before, but the scale and rhythm are clearly different now.

From the perspective of the traditional four-year cycle, 2025 should be the peak of the bull market, with a bear market starting in 2026. However, I suspect this time might not follow the old script completely. The reason is simple—current institutional funds involved are in a completely different league compared to before.

In the past, the market was mainly driven by retail investor sentiment, which came quickly and left just as fast. Now, it's different. There are continuous inflows from ETFs, and large players like MicroStrategy are holding steady positions. This has changed the nature and rhythm of the volatility. The market's resilience has increased, but it also makes it harder for a single event to shake it.

Speaking of which, if the market indeed turns bearish in 26, the current pattern of BTC and altcoin rotation actually provides opportunities for investors with different styles. There's just one iron law—don't go all-in on a single asset. That's how this market works: just when you think you've figured it out, it flips and gives you a reverse move.

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gas_fee_therapy

· 01-10 11:18

Sell half of my BTC to buy Shib, and as a result, Bitcoin went up again. This market just loves to go against my decisions. ETF inflows have indeed changed the rhythm, but institutions also get caught in traps sometimes, don’t overhype them. The rotation is ridiculously fast. Yesterday, I was still hyped in the altcoin group, and today funds are back to bottoming out BTC, and no one even reacted. All in is a death sentence, but I don’t have time to do precise rotations, so I just stick to dollar-cost averaging. The resilience of institutions is strong, but the speed at which retail investors get cut is unchanged. That’s just how it is.

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StablecoinEnjoyer

· 01-10 03:54

Institutional trading is like this: the more resilient it becomes, the harder it is to operate, and retail investors actually have a chance to take advantage of the rotation and profit from the price differences. Bitcoin paused its rally, then the altcoins started to rise, and in turn, they are bleeding again. To put it simply, it's still about capital rotation, endless cycles. If 2026 truly turns into a bear market, then those who are all-in on a certain coin will probably have to cut losses again. It's the same old story. Is BTC becoming a burden? This cycle is unusual; the ETF breakthrough has changed everything. The four-year cycle is a dead doctrine. When institutions enter, everything changes. The retail approach is already outdated. With such a fast rotation pace, ordinary people can't keep up. Staying in stablecoins and earning passively is still the most comfortable way. Once you understand it, turn around and operate in the opposite direction. This market loves to play these tricks—it's incredible.

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SchroedingersFrontrun

· 01-07 11:53

Really, this pace can definitely confuse people. When Bitcoin rises, altcoins bleed out; when altcoins dominate, it feels like playing Russian roulette. Institutional capital has truly changed the game. It's no longer like the old days when retail investors rushed in en masse. Now, resilience has definitely increased. If 2026 really turns bearish... I still decide to avoid high-risk altcoins. Going all-in is a dead end. This round of market has become more complex. You need to be constantly prepared for reverse operations. After big institutions entered, the entire market rhythm changed. It’s no longer the simple and brutal trend of the retail investor era. To be honest, the safest strategy now is to find opportunities to switch between BTC and altcoins. Never bet your entire wealth on it.

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BlindBoxVictim

· 01-07 11:53

Institutional entry has indeed changed the game rules; retail investors will find it harder to make quick money relying on emotions. The phrase "all in" is said too harshly; the market's counter-move could be a rug pull. With such frequent rotation, it feels like the risks are much higher than before. Continuous influx of ETFs indicates that there are still people taking over, so it probably won't die in the short term. A bear market in 2026? I think the timeline might be extended, and institutions won't withdraw so quickly. Copycat rotation for bottom-fishing feels different, but one careless move and you'll become a leek (retail investor), which is the real risk. Bitcoin is stable; everything else is pointless. This time, the feeling is truly obvious. Long-term holders like Micro are stabilizing the lower limit, indicating that there are still scripts to be played later.

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ContractBugHunter

· 01-07 11:48

Institutional entry has indeed changed the flavor. In the past, retail investors would flock in and then quickly exit; now ETFs are continuously flowing in, and the rhythm is completely different. All in is just giving away heads; it's normal for the market to move against expectations. When Bitcoin rises, the entire army mobilizes; then the altcoins become hot favorites again. The rotation is too frequent, which is really a bit exhausting. Regarding the suspicion of a 26-year bear market, institutions are putting in full effort and may not follow the old script. This wave of altcoins being drained is quite fierce; it feels like funds are swinging wildly between BTC and meme coins. Ethereum really seems to be falling behind; hot money just doesn't care about it anymore. The biggest rule in the crypto world is not to all in; everyone who understands knows this. The current resilience is much stronger than before; a single event can't really shake it anymore.

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LightningLady

· 01-07 11:44

Institutional entry really changed the game, retail traders' old tricks are becoming less effective ETFs are continuously bottom-fishing, while we're still watching candlestick charts and hesitating— they've already been dollar-cost averaging for a year A 26-year bear market? Forget it, don't think about it. First, fill in the gaps of the knockoff projects All-in on a single asset class is a martyrdom The rotation is so fast, those chasing the highs are trapped and stuck hard MicroStrategy remains unmoved, when can we be this calm too? Institutional funds are on a different scale, no wonder the market is so resilient— it can't be knocked down easily Those who understand will never truly understand; the market's favorite move is always reverse harvesting Bitcoin and the knockoffs each play their own game; if you can't keep up, you'll just be drained The rhythm has changed; the old four-year cycle theory needs to be revised

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AlwaysQuestioning

· 01-07 11:27

Institutional entry has indeed changed the game rules, but bro, your words are still too absolute... 26 years of bear market? I bet five bucks that there will be a bunch of people shouting "This time is different." People who are all in on a certain asset probably already regret it to the point of vomiting haha. The capital rotation is so fierce, it feels like retail investors just can't keep up with the rhythm. What sounds like an opportunity is actually just gambling on luck. Those who still dare to go all in now, unless it's faith or just no brains. This cycle is indeed strange, institutional holdings support the bottom from being hit, but the ceiling is also lowered. Shanzhai projects are being drained, and this guy Ethereum really has a bit of a laid-back vibe. Turning around and going in the opposite direction? I feel like I’m always the one going against the trend...

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