#比特币ETF Looking at CryptoQuant's data, the signals for Bitcoin ETFs are very clear. In Q4 2025, the US spot ETF will shift from net buying to net selling, with a total reduction of about 24,000 BTC, contrasting sharply with the strong accumulation during the same period last year. More notably, addresses holding 100-1000 BTC (mainly composed of ETFs and corporate treasuries) have fallen below the long-term trend—this indicator has often been a leading signal for cycle reversals in history.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has broken below the 365-day moving average, a line that has historically marked the boundary between bull and bear markets in multiple cycles. On the demand side, the three waves of market activity driven over the past two years—approval of spot ETFs, US election results, and corporate treasury enthusiasm—have largely been absorbed. When new demand falls below the trend line and large holders start reducing their holdings, the remaining support points become limited.

At this stage, more attention should be paid to the marginal changes in capital flow rather than chasing the high. Whales are already in action; the next step is to see who still has incremental demand to take over.