The Federal Reserve pauses interest rate adjustments, and the market falls into a wait-and-see mode. How will cryptocurrencies respond?

The policy stance of the Federal Open Market Committee(FOMC) has shown subtle changes. Former St. Louis Fed President Bullard recently stated that, in the absence of additional economic data, the FOMC is unwilling to further adjust interest rates. This statement sends a clear signal: the Federal Reserve has temporarily paused policy adjustments and shifted to a wait-and-see mode. For the crypto market, this means increased short-term uncertainty regarding policy expectations.

Key Implications of the Policy Signal

What does the FOMC’s “pause” mean?

Bullard’s remarks reflect a cautious attitude within the FOMC regarding the economic outlook. The phrase “unwilling to further adjust” is crucial, as it implies:

• The current interest rate level is considered appropriate for now
• No hasty decisions will be made until more economic data is available
• Policy makers need more comprehensive information to determine the next steps

This wait-and-see approach is common during periods of mixed economic data and uncertain outlooks. With global economic growth slowing and inflation expectations still uncertain, the FOMC’s cautious stance aligns with this context.

Market reactions to the policy

According to the latest news, Bitcoin briefly surged to $91,600 in early January 2026. This volatility reflects the market’s sensitivity to policy outlooks. As risk assets, cryptocurrencies’ performance is highly correlated with Federal Reserve policy expectations. Uncertainty about policy often leads to increased market volatility.

Impact pathways on the crypto market

Currently, the FOMC’s stance is “rates remain unchanged,” which means:

• Short-term financing costs will not continue to rise
• No clear signal of policy easing
• The market needs to wait for more economic data to determine the direction

Key data to watch moving forward

The FOMC’s decision to pause rate adjustments depends on “more data.” The upcoming economic indicators to monitor include:

• Employment data (non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate)
• Inflation data (CPI, PCE)
• GDP growth expectations
• Consumer confidence index

The release schedule of these data points will directly influence the next FOMC policy decision. For crypto investors, these key economic events on the calendar could trigger price volatility.

Summary

The FOMC’s wait-and-see attitude reflects the complexity of the current economic situation. Bullard’s remarks, while seemingly calm, leave significant uncertainty in the market. In the short term, the crypto market may continue to fluctuate between policy expectations. A true directional breakout will require clearer economic data. Investors should pay attention to the data release schedule and prepare for possible policy shifts. At this stage, observation is preferable to aggressive actions.